Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans College Football Free Betting Prediction

Victor TrejosArticles, College Football, Football

The No. 24 Michigan State Spartans (-4.5) and Indiana Hoosiers are ready to go at it on the turf at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff for this conference game is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and Big Ten Network is scheduled to have the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana is the underdog in this Big 10 matchup and is currently receiving 4.5 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to wager $200 to win $100 back on the Spartans (-200). The Hoosiers are getting +170 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 48 points, and if one side gets out in front in the early stages, it’ll likely produce a nice in-game betting opportunity.

The sharp action is siding with the Spartans, as the line opened at 3.5. The game’s total has not moved after it was initially posted at 48.

The Spartans are down 2.0 units so far in 2018 and 0-2 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 1-1.

The Hoosiers have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 3.0 units. The team is 1-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-2.

The Spartans are 1-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any Big 10 competition yet. The Hoosiers are 3-0 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.

When these two programs met last year, Michigan State earned the win 17-9.

The Spartans fell to Arizona State 16-13 in a nailbiter where Brian Lewerke completed 27-of-39 passes for 314 yards, as well as a TD and an interception. Lewerke (-12 yards on eight rush attempts) also led the ground attack. Cody White (nine receptions, 113 yards, one TD) and Felton Davis III (five catches, 64 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

Indiana enter this one having just earned a lopsided 38-10 win over Ball State. The defense let the Cardinals run for 204 yards on 39 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. James Gilbert was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 89 rushing yards and a score on 16 attempts for Ball State. As a group, the Hoosiers collectively completed 24-of-32 passes for 202 yards. Peyton Ramsey went 20-for-27 for 173 yards while Michael Penix Jr. was four-of-five for 29 yards. Stevie Scott (114 yards on 18 rush attempts, two TDs) mounted the running game as Luke Timian (five receptions, 56 yards) and Scott (three catches, 12 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

Michigan State has run the ball on 48.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Indiana has an overall rush percentage of 59.4 percent. The Spartans have run for 114.0 yards/game and have two touchdowns on the ground this year. The Hoosiers are totaling 235.0 rushing yards per game and have five total rush TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it seems like the Hoosiers ought to hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, as their offensive line has given up only one sacks while the D-line has logged four sacks. The Spartans offensive line has given up five sacks and their defense has got to opposing QBs just four times.

The Spartans offense has tallied 300.5 yards per game in the air overall and has three passing scores so far. The Hoosiers have recorded 201.3 pass yards per outing and have six total pass TDs.

Defensively, Michigan State has allowed 34.5 rush yards and 349.5 pass yards per game. The Indiana D has allowed 135.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 187.3 yards per game on the ground. The Hoosiers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.14 to opposing QBs, while the Spartans have allowed a 5.77 ANY/A.

Offensively, Lewerke has amassed 314 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 27-of-39 attempts with one passing scores and one interception. He’s got a 6.68 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.92 over the last two games.

In the home locker room, Peyton Ramsey has completed 40-of-54 passes for 329 yards, three TDs and one INT. Ramsey’s ANY/A stands at 6.09 for the season and 6.49 over his last two games.

Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers Free Pick

SU Winner: Michigan State, ATS Winner: Michigan State, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes,

  • The Spartans offense has recorded one pass play of 40+ yards, while the Hoosiers have accounted for zero such plays.
  • Both defenses have allowed zero pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Michigan State defense has given up one pass play of 30+ yards while Indiana has given up two such plays.
  • The Michigan State offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while Indiana has created four such runs.
  • The Spartans defense has allowed zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Hoosiers have given up four such runs.
  • Each team defense has produced four sacks this season.
  • Over its last three games, Indiana is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Michigan State was the underdog by 5 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 53. The under cashed and Michigan State covered in the 16-13 defeat to Arizona State.
  • Indiana was favored by 15 points in its previous game and the O/U was 62.5. The under cashed and Indiana covered in the 38-10 win over Ball State.
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