The East Carolina Pirates (+18) are set to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (-18) at Nippert Stadium. Kickoff for this AAC game is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can view the action live on CBS Sports Network.
Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats
East Carolina is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 18 points in this AAC game. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently need to spend $1,500 in order to win $100 back on the Bearcats (-1500). The Pirates are getting +81/0 moneyline odds. If one team can create a bunch of points early it’ll generate a nice betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 52 points.
The Pirates are 4-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.0 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-5.
The Bearcats have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 10.0 units. The team is 6-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-7.
The Pirates have gone just 3-7 straight up (SU), including 1-6 SU against AAC opponents. The Bearcats are 9-2 SU overall and 5-2 SU in conference play.
When these two squads faced one another a year ago, East Carolina knocked East Carolina off by four touchdowns 48-20.
The Pirates are on the upswing after a 55-21 victory over Connecticut last week. The passing attack was sharp as Holton Ahlers completed 22 passes on 31 attempts for 242 yards and four touchdowns. Trace Christian (102 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) and th/e signal-caller Ahlers (130 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the ground attack. Tyler Snead (six receptions, 62 yards, three TDs) and Trevon Brown (four catches, 31 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Cincinnati just fell convincingly 38-13 to UCF. The team’s defense allowed the Knights to eat up the clock by rushing for 134 yards on 36 attempts, including two rush TDs. Adrian Killins Jr. had a good showing, recording 82 yards and two touchdowns on fou/r catches for UCF. For Cincinnati, Desmond Ridder completed 11-of-26 passes for 127 yards. Ridder (70 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and Michael Warren II (81 yards on 18 carries) spearheaded the running game while Kahlil Lewis (five receptions, 75 yards) an/d Warren II (three catches, 27 yards) led all Cincinnati pass-catchers in the loss.
East Carolina has run the ball on 41.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has a rush percentage of 63.5 percent. The Pirates have produced 144.2 rush yards per game (including 139.3 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents/) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bearcats are averaging 237.3 rush yards per game (238.4 in conference) and have 32 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Bearcats should have an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.0 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Pirates hav/e rushed for 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 3.9 YPC to opponents.
The Pirates offense has averaged 312.4 yards in the air overall (315.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing scores so far. The Bearcats have put up 204.3 pass yards per outing (212 in the AAC) and have 16 total pass TD/s.
East Carolina has let opponents rush for an average of 155.6 yards and throw for 242.6 yards per game. The Cincinnati D has allowed 185.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bearcats are giving up an adjusted ne/t yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.88 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates have allowed a 7.57 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ahlers is up to 1,241 passing yards this season, and has connected on 98-of-174 attempts with nine scores through the air and only one interception. Ahlers has a 7.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.27 over the last two games.
Look for Ahlers to attack all areas of the Cincinnati secondary. Holton Ahlers (112 receiving yards), Trevon Brown (869 yards, seven TDs) and Tyler Snead (112 yards, four TDs) have all been heavily involved recently.
Desmond Ridder has completed 153-of-251 passes for 1,830 yards, 13 TDs and five INTs for Cincinnati. His ANY/A stands at 6.51 for the season and 5.67 across his past two outings.
Look for a balanced offensive approach from Cincinnati in this one. Michael Warren II (1,012 rushing yards, 14 rush TDs, 195 receiving yards this season), Desmond Ridder (507 rush yards, five rush TDs, zero receiving yards) and Kahlil Lewis (528 receiving yards, five /receiving TDs) have all played significant roles lately. The trio’s combined for 528 total yards and five touchdowns over the past two game/s.
East Carolina Pirates at Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Pick
SU Winner: Cincinnati, ATS Winner: East Carolina, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- Cincinnati has lost 12 fumbles this season while East Carolina has let seven get away.
- The East Carolina D has 32 sacks on the year while Cincinnati has 27.
- As a team, East Carolina has produced 5.6 yards per carry across its past three games and 6.3 over its last two.
- Cincinnati has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.6 over its past two.
- Over its last three games, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for East Carolina’s previous game was set at 70. The over cashed in the team’s 55-21 win over Connecticut.
- In its last three matchups, East Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Cincinnati’s last match was set at 60. The under cashed in the 38-13 loss to UCF.
