The No. 16 Fresno State Bulldogs (-3) are traveling east to face the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. This pivotal Friday showdown kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET and interested parties can catch the action live on ESPN2.
Betting Preview: Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
In this Friday Mountain West game, Fresno State is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -155 moneyline odds while the Broncos are +135. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 54 points. If Fresno State allows a touchdown or two early, it would probably result in a nice betting scenario in-game.
Since the game’s O/U was originally placed at 55, the under has gotten most of the early sharp action.
The profitable Bulldogs have gained 3.9 units so far and are 8-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-6.
The Broncos have lost 1.6 units this season. The team is 4-4-1 ATS and the over’s hit in five of its games.
The Bulldogs have gone 8-1 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against MWC opponents. The Broncos are 7-2 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs are trying to keep things going following a solid 48-3 victory over UNLV last week. Marcus McMaryion completed 26 passes on 35 attempts for 274 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Ronnie Rivers (33 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack. KeeSean Johnson (eight receptions, 97 yards) and Michiah Quick (five catches, 49 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Boise State just put together a 21-16 win over BYU. The Broncos defensive secondary allowed the Cougars to air it out for 292 yards. Matt Hadley was a bright spot in the loss for BYU, posting 39 rushing yards on 11 attempts, along with 59 yards on one catch. For Boise State, Brett Rypien completed 23-of-35 passes for 214 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Alexander Mattison (89 yards on 25 rush attempts, two TDs) handled the running attack as Mattison (five receptions, 40 yards) and A.J. Richardson (four catches, 53 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Fresno State has run the ball on 52.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Boise State has an overall rush percentage of 49.6 percent. The Bulldogs have rushed for 150.6 yards per game (including 138.6 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 23 scores on the ground this year. The Broncos are putting up 149.8 rush yards per game (138.0 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.
The Bulldogs offensive scheme has logged 280.8 yards/game in the air overall (286.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 21 passing scores so far. The Broncos have recorded 318.9 pass yards per outing (311 against MWC foes) and have 25 total pass TDs.
Fresno State appears to have an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 128.8 yards and throw for 178.2 yards per game. The Boise State D has allowed 234.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 128.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.26 to opponents, while the Broncos have allowed a 6.59 ANY/A.
Offensively, McMaryion is up to 2,132 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 71 percent of his 247 attempts with 16 scores through the air and only three interceptions. He’s got a sparkling 9.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.59 over the last two outings.
We expect the Fresno State offense to mix it up in this one. KeeSean Johnson (756 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns this season), Ronnie Rivers (140 rush yards, four rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and Jared Rice (407 receiving yards, two TDs) have all played key roles recently.
Brett Rypien has connected on 202-of-294 passes for 2,380 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs for Boise State. His ANY/A stands at 7.54 for the season and 9.11 across his last two games.
Alexander Mattison (590 rushing yards, nine rush TDs, 106 receiving yards this season), John Hightower (314 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Sean Modster (559 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) have combined for 574 total yards and six touchdowns over the past two games.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Fresno State, ATS Winner: Fresno State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends:
- The Over/Under for Fresno State’s last game was 59.5. The under cashed in the team’s 48-3 triumph over UNLV.
- Fresno State, as a team, has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its past three games and 6.1 over its last two.
- Boise State has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 3.3 over its past two.
- Boise State has lost four fumbles this season while Fresno State has lost three.
- Over its last three matchups, Fresno State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Boise State’s last match going into it was 52.5. The under cashed in the team’s 21-16 win over BYU.
- Over its last three contests, Boise State is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Bulldogs offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have put up 10 such plays.
- The Fresno State defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Boise State has given up eight such plays.
- The Fresno State offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Boise State has created 10 such runs.
- The Bulldogs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Broncos have given up 10 such runs.
- The Boise State D has recorded 31 sacks on the year while Fresno State has just 16.
