In a battle featuring two schools that prefer running the football, Tigers of Missouri (-21) are gearing up to host the Arkansas Razorbacks at Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field. The Friday SEC matchup is going to be nationally-televised on CBS and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Missouri Tigers
Arkansas is the noticeable underdog here and is currently receiving three touchdowns from oddsmakers. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 62 points, and if one school finds paydirt early on, it will likely produce a reasonable in-game betting scenario.
Odds have shifted slightly from when they were originally set. The opening line was -20 and the game’s O/U was set initially at 62.5.
The less-than-stellar Razorbacks are down 12.8 units so far and 6-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 4-6.
The Tigers have gained 1.4 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-5-1 ATS and six of their games have gone over the total.
The Razorbacks are 2-9 straight up (SU), including 0-7 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 7-4 SU overall and 3-4 SU in conference play.
These two squads faced off last year with the final result being a 48-45 victory for Missouri.
Arkansas enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak while Missouri has dropped each of its last three. The Razorbacks are looking to get back on track after a 52-6 defeat to Mississippi State last week. The Razorbacks defense allowed the Bulldogs to eat up the clock by rushing for 287 yards on 47 attempts, including two rush TDs. On the offensive side of the ball, Ty Storey completed 16 passes for only 137 yards and one interception. Rakeem Boyd (84 rushing yards on 14 attempts) led the ground attack. Deon Stewart (six receptions, 13 yards) and La’Michael Pettway (four catches, 83 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Missouri just got a 50-17 win over Tennessee. Drew Lock completed 21-of-30 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Larry Rountree III (135 rushing yards on 26 attempts, one TD) handled the running game while Johnathon Johnson (seven receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Emanuel Hall (four catches, 74 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Arkansas has run the ball on 53.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Missouri has an overall rush percentage of 54.9. The Razorbacks have produced 151.7 rush yards per game (including 138.3 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Tigers are averaging 198.7 rushing yards per game (187.6 in conference) and have 24 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Tigers may hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 4.7 yards per carry while their defense has allowed 3.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Razorbacks have tallied 4.2 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.
The Razorbacks offense has averaged 197.5 yards through the air overall (190.6 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Tigers have produced 275.6 pass yards per game (213 in the SEC) and have 23 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Arkansas seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 166.6 rush yards and 247.0 pass yards per game. The Missouri D has allowed 267.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.38 to opponents, while the Razorbacks have given up a 7.89 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Storey is up to 1,360 yards this year, and has completed 120-of-205 attempts with nine passing scores and eight interceptions. Storey’s got a 5.12 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.41 over the past two outings.
We expect the Arkansas offense to mix it up in this one. Rakeem Boyd (699 rushing yards, two rush TDs this season), La’Michael Pettway (437 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Cheyenne O’Grady (308 receiving yards, four TDs) have each played key roles recently.
Drew Lock has connected on 214-of-341 passes for 2,651 yards, 21 TDs and six INTs for Missouri. His ANY/A stands at 7.67 for the season and 7.49 over his last two games.
We expect the Tigers to control tempo by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Johnathon Johnson (466 receiving yards, four TDs this season) has stepped up lately, but Larry Rountree III (801 rush yards, 10 rush TDs) and Damarea Crockett (587 rush yards, six rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Tigers’ recent offensive gameplans.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Missouri Tigers Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Missouri, ATS Winner: Arkansas, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Missouri offense has lost five fumbles this season while Arkansas has let seven get away.
- The Arkansas defense has 26 sacks on the year while Missouri has just 19.
- Arkansas, as a team, has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its past three games and 1.6 over its last two.
- Missouri has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its past two.
- In its last three contests, Missouri is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Arkansas’ last game was set at 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-6 loss to Mississippi State.
- Over its last three matchups, Arkansas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Missouri’s last matchup was set at 57.5. The over cashed in the team’s 50-17 victory over Tennessee.
- Arkansas has lost 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a 23-point win over Tulsa on October 20th accounting for the only victory over that span.
