In the Camellia Bowl, the Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3) are favorites as they prepare to take on the FIU Panthers. Kickoff for this criticalmatchup is set for 5:30 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to televise the action.
Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. FIU Panthers
In this Saturday matchup, Arkansas State is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Panthers are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Red Wolves are -140. If one squad can find paydirt early it will produce a worthy betting scenario in-game. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 63 points.
Odds have shifted slightly from where they initially opened. The opening line was -3 while the game’s total was originally set at 62.5.
The less-than-stellar Panthers are 4-8 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 5.7 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-6.
The Red Wolves have lost 1.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-7 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-5.
The Panthers have gone 6-6 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Red Wolves are 7-5 SU.
The Panthers came up short to Marshall 30-27 in a matchup where their defense allowed the Thundering Herd to run for 200 yards on 57 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Brenden Knox had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 146 rushing yards and a score on 33 attempts. On the offensive side, James Morgan completed only 21 passes on 37 attempts for 236 yards, along with a score and a pick. Anthony Jones (only 52 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Tony Gaiter IV (nine receptions, 107 yards, one TD) and Austin Maloney (three catches, 83 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Back on November 29, South Alabama knocked off this Arkansas State crew by a score of 34-30. The Red Wolves defense let the Jaguars run for 216 yards on 48 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jalen Tolbert had a productive outing, recording 144 yards and four touchdowns on five catches for South Alabama. For Arkansas State, Layne Hatcher completed 23-of-38 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Jamal Jones (61 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Marcel Murray (39 yards on 14 carries) mounted the running game as Kirk Merritt (nine receptions, 121 yards) and Jonathan Adams Jr. (four catches, 69 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
FIU has run the ball on 56.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Arkansas State has an overall rush percentage of 50.1 percent. The Panthers have rushed for 168 yards/game and have 22 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Red Wolves are averaging 126.8 rushing yards per game and have 13 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Panthers should hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has allowed just eight sacks while the D-line registered 21 sacks. The Red Wolves O-line has given up 24 sacks and their defense has forced only 34 sacks.
The Panthers offense has logged 205.6 yards/contest in the air overall and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Red Wolves have recorded 306 pass yards per contest and have 33 total pass scores.
FIU appears to possess an advantage in both defensive facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 204.2 yards and throw for 178.5 yards per game. The Arkansas State D has given up 258.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 222.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Panthers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.01 to opponents, while the Red Wolves have allowed a 6.55 ANY/A.
Offensively, Morgan is up to 2,113 passing yards this year, and has completed 58 percent of his 289 attempts with 11 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Morgan’s got a 7.06 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.93 over the last two outings.
As a group, Tony Gaiter IV, Anthony Jones and Shemar Thornton have combined to account for 447 total yards and five touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
On the other sideline, Layne Hatcher has completed 158-of-235 passes for 2,207 yards, 19 TDs and nine INTs. Hatcher’s ANY/A sits at 8.02 for the season and 11.35 across his past two outings.
Look for Hatcher to attack all areas of the FIU secondary. Jonathan Adams Jr. (630 receiving yards and two receiving TDs this season), Omar Bayless (1,368 receiving yards, 15 receiving TDs), and Kirk Merritt (722 receiving yards, 10 TDs) have collectively notched 600 receiving yards and five scores over the last two games.
FIU Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Free Prediction
SU Winner: Arkansas State, ATS Winner: Arkansas State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- FIU has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.7 over its last two.
- Arkansas State has averaged 2.8 yards per carry over its last three games and only 2.6 over its last two.
- The Arkansas State offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while FIU has lost nine.
- The Panthers offense has registered seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Red Wolves have put up 16 such plays.
- The FIU defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Arkansas State has given up eight such plays.
- The FIU offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Arkansas State has created 10 such runs.
- The Panthers defense has allowed 21 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Red Wolves have given up 19 such runs.
- The Arkansas State D has tallied 26 sacks on the year while FIU has just 18.
