The East Carolina Pirates (+33) are making a trip south to face their conference rival UCF Knights at Spectrum Stadium. The opening kickoff for this crucialshowdown is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates vs. UCF Knights
East Carolina is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving 33 points from oddsmakers. If the Knights get down early on it would generate a nice betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 61 points.
With the line opening at -33 and the O/U initially set at 60.5, bookmakers have moved the odds a hair.
The Pirates are down 0.7 units this season and 3-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-6.
The Knights have lost 3.8 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 3-3 ATS and own an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Pirates are 3-3 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against conference opponents. The Knights are 4-2 SU overall and 1-1 SU in conference play.
The Pirates look to bounce back after a 27-17 defeat to Temple on October 3 in which Holton Ahlers completed only 19 passes on 39 attempts for 229 yards and two touchdowns. Demetrius Mauney (45 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and the signal-caller Ahlers (26 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack in the loss. C.J. Johnson (eight receptions, 100 yards, two TDs) and Blake Proehl (two catches, 32 yards) shared the receiving duties.
UCF narrowly lost a 27-24 game to Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago. The defense allowed the Bearcats to rush for 192 yards on 41 attempts. Michael Warren II had a good outing in the win for Cincinnati, posting 133 rushing yards on 23 attempts. For UCF, Dillon Gabriel completed 25-of-46 passes for 297 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Greg McCrae (71 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Otis Anderson (45 yards on 12 carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Gabriel Davis (13 receptions, 170 yards) and Tre Nixon (six catches, 76 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. East Carolina’s run the ball on 54.0 percent of its offensive possessions while UCF has a rush percentage of 55.8. The Pirates have produced 160.8 rush yards/game (including 91 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have six touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Knights are putting up 214.8 rush yards per game (178 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Knights ought to own the advantage in terms of efficiency in the ground game. Their backfield has produced 5.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Pirates have rushed for 4.3 yards per carry while allowing 3.9 YPC to opponents.
The Pirates offense has averaged 202.7 yards in the air overall (183.5 per game against conference opposition) and has six passing scores so far. The Knights have recorded 329.5 pass yards per outing (337 in the AAC) and have 19 total pass TDs.
Defensively, East Carolina has allowed opponents to run for an average of 165.7 yards and pass for 201.3 yards per game. The UCF defense has given up 195.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 131.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.11 to opponents, while the Pirates have given up a 5.32 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ahlers has put up 940 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 90-of-164 attempts with four passing scores and three interceptions. Ahlers has a 4.64 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.06 over the last two games.
Dillon Gabriel has completed 88-of-150 passes for 1,354 yards, 12 TDs and five INTs for UCF. His ANY/A stands at 8.22 for the season and 7.47 across his past two outings.
When these two schools faced each other a year ago, UCF knocked East Carolina off easily 37-10.
East Carolina Pirates vs. UCF Knights Free Pick
SU Winner: UCF, ATS Winner: East Carolina, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The East Carolina defense has 15 sacks on the year while UCF has 12.
- Both offenses have lost three fumbles this season.
- The Pirates offense has produced three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Knights have put up 11 such plays.
- The East Carolina defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UCF has given up zero such plays.
- The East Carolina offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while UCF has created 14 such runs.
- The Pirates defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Knights have given up six such runs.
- The Over/Under for UCF’s last game going into it was 63.5. The under cashed in the 27-24 defeat to Cincinnati.
- Over its last three games, UCF is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three games, East Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for East Carolina’s last game was set at 46.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-17 loss to Temple.
- As a team, East Carolina has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.9 over its last two.
- UCF has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.5 over its past two.
