In a display of two schools that like to run the football, Coach Mike Houston and the East Carolina Pirates (-14.5) are set to take on their AAC rival Connecticut Huskies at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN 3 and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates vs. Connecticut Huskies
Connecticut is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 14.5 points. The Pirates are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Huskies are +510. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 66 points, and some decent live betting opportunities should be unveiled throughout the game.
Square bettors are hammering the Pirates, as the opening line was 13. The total has yet to move after being initially set at 66.
The Pirates are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.7 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-6.
The Huskies have gained 0.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and also have an O/U record of 4-6.
The Pirates have gone 3-7 straight up (SU), including 0-6 SU against conference opponents. The Huskies are 2-8 SU overall and 0-6 SU in conference play.
The Pirates dropped one to SMU 59-51 in a matchup where the defense allowed the Mustangs to pass for 414 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 222 yards and three scores. Xavier Jones was unstoppable for the Mustangs in that one with 157 rushing yards and all three touchdowns on 20 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Holton Ahlers completed 32 passes on 42 attempts for 498 yards and six touchdowns. Tay Williams (61 yards on 14 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. Tyler Snead (19 receptions, 240 yards, three TDs) and Audie Omotosho (four catches, 77 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
Back on November 9, Cincinnati knocked off this Connecticut team by a score of 48-3. The Huskies defense allowed the Bearcats to run for 307 yards on 43 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Gerrid Doaks had a good outing in the win for Cincinnati, recording 123 rushing yards and a score on 13 attempts. As a group, the Huskies collectively completed 10-of-23 passes for 70 yards and one interception. Jack Zergiotis went four-for-14 for 35 yards and one interception while Mike Beaudry was six-of-nine for 35 yards. Kevin Mensah (115 rushing yards on 24 attempts) and Art Thompkins (55 yards on seven carries) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Thompkins (three receptions, 12 yards) and Ardell Brown (three catches, 29 yards) led the receiving attack.
East Carolina’s run the ball on 52.1 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 49.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Connecticut has a rush percentage of 54.5 percent, and has run the ball 52.2 percent of the time against AAC opponents. The Pirates have run for 148.6 yards per game (including 117.2 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Huskies are putting up 137.4 rushing yards per game (125.5 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Pirates should hold an advantage when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has yielded just 25 sacks while the D-line registered 33 sacks. The Huskies O-line has given up 28 sacks and their defense has generated only 11 sacks.
The Pirates offense has logged 278.4 yards/contest in the air overall (322.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Huskies have produced 190.9 pass yards per contest (195 against AAC foes) and have 10 total pass scores.
Defensively, East Carolina has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 206.1 yards and pass for 237.5 yards per game. The Connecticut defense has allowed 223.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 228.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Pirates are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.91 to opposing QBs, while the Huskies have given up an 8.37 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ahlers is up to 2,170 passing yards this season, and has connected on 59 percent of his 292 attempts with 13 passing scores and seven interceptions. Ahlers has a 6.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 12.15 over the past two games.
Look for Ahlers to attack all areas of the Connecticut secondary. C.J. Johnson (164 receiving yards and three touchdowns), Tyler Snead (549 yards, four TDs) and Jsi Hatfield (164 yards, one TD) have all been heavily involved recently.
For the home team, Jack Zergiotis has completed 89-of-154 passes for 909 yards, four TDs and seven INTs. Zergiotis’ ANY/A sits at a minuscule 3.70 for the season and 1.63 over his past two outings.
We’re looking for Huskies to maintain tempo by feeding the running backs early and often. Cameron Hairston (142 receiving yards, one TD) has chipped in lately, but Kevin Mensah (811 rush yards, nine rush TDs) and Art Thompkins (430 rush yards, two rush TDs, 221 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been significant focal points in the Connecticut offense.
These two programs met a year ago with the final outcome being a 55-21 win for East Carolina.
East Carolina Pirates at Connecticut Huskies Free Prediction
SU Winner: East Carolina, ATS Winner: East Carolina, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- Both teams have lost six fumbles this year.
- The East Carolina defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this season. Connecticut has recorded 18 sacks.
- As a team, East Carolina has rushed for 3.3 yards per attempt over its last three games and 3.6 over its last two.
- Connecticut has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.3 over its past two.
- Over its last three contests, Connecticut is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for East Carolina’s previous game going into it was 73.5. The over cashed in the team’s 59-51 loss to SMU.
- In its last three contests, East Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Connecticut’s previous game was set at 53.5. The under cashed in the 48-3 loss to Cincinnati.
- Connecticut has dropped nine of its last 10 games SU, with a 21-point victory over Massachusetts on October 26th representing the lone win over that stretch.
