The Detroit Pistons (27-30), 4.5-point underdogs, will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to go head-to-head with the Miami Heat (26-31). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 205.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 23, 2019.
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat ATS Odds
In their last game, the Pistons (3.5-point underdogs) covered in a 125-122 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. The Heat fell to the Philadelphia 76ers, 106-102, but did cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The Detroit game finished 37 points over the projected point total of 210, while the Miami game went 12.5 points under the projected point total of 220.5.
The Pistons had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 6.9 (better than their season average of 12.3), while the Hawks had a free throw rate of 0.182 (below the 0.214 mark opponents have averaged against Detroit this season). Miami, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (8.2 vs. 13.3). Dwyane Wade fueled Miami with 19 points and six assists. Andre Drummond had a good outing for Detroit, contributing 26 points, 21 rebounds and five steals.
The Pistons evened the season series at one with a 98-93 victory in their most recent game. Blake Griffin recorded a double-double with 32 points and 11 rebounds. One of Detroit’s largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 15-18 (83.3 percent), while the Heat were just 5-19 (26.3 percent). Detroit covered as a 3-point favorite and the two teams combined to score 191 points, which was under the projected point total of 205.5.
Games involving the Pistons tend to go under the total (55.4 percent). Detroit heads into the game with records of 27-30 straight up (SU) and 26-29-1 against the spread (ATS).
Heat games have a slight tendency to go over the O/U total (49.1 percent). Further, Miami is 26-31 SU and 29-27-1 ATS.
The Pistons’ Drummond has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 25 points,16.4 rebounds,2.4 blocks,2.0 steals per game. Meanwhile, Justise Winslow has averaged 13 points,7.4 rebounds,4.2 assists during that same time frame for the Heat.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Miami currently ranks 24th in possessions per game (100.6) and Detroit is 21st (101.4).
Pistons vs. Heat ATS Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.6) while Detroit ranks 27th (3.8).
- The Pistons rank second in three pointers allowed per game (28.4) while the Heat rank 12th (31.1).
- Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (22.8) while Detroit ranks 11th (24.1).
- Miami ranks 28th in fast break points per game (9.8) while Detroit ranks last (9.2).
- The Heat rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while the Pistons rank 23rd (50.6).
- The Pistons rank 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.1) while the Heat rank 27th (18.1).
- Detroit ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while Miami ranks 17th (13.6).
- When allowing under 100 points, Detroit is 8-2 and Miami is 15-3.
- When scoring above 100 points, the Heat are 24-16 and the Pistons are 24-20.
- Miami is 10-16-1 ATS at home, while Detroit is 13-13 ATS on the road.
- Of the Pistons’ 26 road games, they have 16 unders, 9 overs and 1 push.
- The Heat have 14 overs and 13 unders in 27 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Pistons are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 3-2.
- In their last five games, Detroit has 4 overs and 1 under, while Miami has 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Pistons have outscored opponents by an average of 6.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Detroit has been defeated by an average of 1.4 points.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.0 points per game (2.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (0.7 above their season average).
