The Miami Heat (19-17) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they go head-to-head with the Detroit Pistons (20-15). The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 195.5 points with Miami set as a 3-point favorite. Action begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018, and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Detroit.
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Pistons were victorious over the San Antonio Spurs in their last outing, 93-79. With 14 points, 21 rebounds and six assists, Detroit’s Andre Drummond put together a solid outing. Detroit dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an effective field goal percentage of 0.494 (below their season average of 0.511) and a turnover percentage of 11.1 (better than their season average of 12.6). For those same stats, San Antonio was 0.399 and 13.5, respectively.
In the Heat’s last game, they topped the Orlando Magic, 117-111. With 31 points on 12-for-18 shooting, Tyler Johnson was Miami’s high scorer. Miami dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 7.7 (better than their season average of 14.1) and a free throw rate of 0.170 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Orlando recorded marks of 12.0 and 0.136, respectively.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Miami ranks 27th in possessions per game (96.7) and Detroit is 22nd (97.4).
Both of these teams have typically gone under the O/U total. Detroit games have finished under 60.0 percent of the time, while 61.1 percent of games involving Miami have gone under. Both teams have respectable straight up (SU) records (20-15 for Detroit; 19-17 for Miami), but the Pistons have the advantage against the spread (ATS). Detroit is 20-13-2 ATS, while the Heat are 15-19-2.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Pistons, it’s been Ish Smith, who has averaged 11.8 points and 4.4 assists, while the Heat have gotten great contributions from Josh Richardson (18.8 points and 4.0 assists).
These teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 215 points, well over the projected point total of 200. The Pistons won 112-103, covering as 2-point favorites. The Pistons dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.6 and a free throw rate of 0.161. The Heat were 14.0 and 0.133, respectively, for those same stats. Tobias Harris scored a game-high 25 points.
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Pistons, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Pistons rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while the Heat rank 17th (16.8).
- Detroit ranks 16th in fast break points per game (10.5) while Miami ranks 28th (7.4).
- On the road, Detroit is 11-6-1 ATS with 12 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
- Miami is 4-11-2 ATS at home with 10 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
- Detroit is 11-4 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 13-3.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Heat are 14-6 and the Pistons are 17-4.
- The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.3) while the Pistons rank 10th (27.1).
- Detroit ranks 10th in second chance points per game (13.3) while Miami ranks 29th (9.4).
- The Heat rank 13th in blocks per game (4.8) while the Pistons rank last (3.3).
- Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Detroit ranks 21st (23.9).
Betting Trends:
- Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Detroit is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.6, down from 1.8 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 97.2 points per game (4.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 95.0 points per game (6.0 below their season average).
