Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction 01/28/19

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Don’t expect a fast-paced game when the Denver Nuggets (33-15), 5-point favorites, travel to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies (20-30). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 208 points and it will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 28, 2019.

Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Grizzlies (5-point underdogs) defeated the Indiana Pacers 106-103, while the Nuggets (10.5-point favorite) beat the Philadelphia 76ers 126-110. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Memphis game went 6.5 points over the projected point total of 202.5, while the Denver game went 9 points over the projected point total of 227.

Denver dominated every facet of the game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.8 (below their season average of 28.1) and a turnover percentage of 8.6 (better than their season average of 11.6). For those same stats, Philadelphia was 21.6 and 10.4, respectively. Meanwhile, Memphis’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Indiana. The Grizzlies had a rate of 11.5 (better than their season average of 12.6), while the Pacers posted a mark of 15.9 (above their season average of 12.4). Memphis received a boost from Mike Conley, who had 22 points and 11 assists. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokic played an enormous role in the victory for Denver, accumulating 32 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists on his way to his sixth triple-double of the year.

The Nuggets evened the season series at one with a 105-99 victory in their most recent matchup. Jokic put up a double-double in the victory with 27 points and 12 rebounds. Denver’s rebounding was their largest strength. The Nuggets had 11 offensive rebounds and 40 total rebounds, while the Grizzlies had six and 34, respectively. Denver covered as a 4-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 204 points, which was over the projected point total of 197.

A little over half of the Nuggets’ games have finished over the total. Denver holds records of 33-15 straight up (SU) and 27-21 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas is known to place the total high when the Grizzlies are involved, as 60.0 percent of their games have gone under the projected point total. Further, Memphis is 20-30 SU and 20-30 ATS.

Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Memphis currently ranks 30th in possessions per game (97.7) and Denver is 27th (100.1).

Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Grizzlies rank fifth in steals per game (8.8) while the Nuggets rank 14th (7.8).
  • Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.8) while Memphis ranks 29th (9.6).
  • The Grizzlies rank fourth in blocks per game (5.8) while the Nuggets rank 25th (4.5).
  • Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (52.9) while Memphis ranks 22nd (46.3).
  • Denver ranks fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while Memphis ranks 15th (16.9).
  • The Nuggets rank sixth in rebounds per game (47.0) while the Grizzlies rank last (39.9).
  • The Nuggets rank third in assists per game (27.3) while the Grizzlies rank 20th (23.5).
  • Denver ranks 16th in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while Memphis ranks 25th (27.4).
  • Denver ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Memphis ranks 26th (15.1).
  • When holding opponents under 100 points, Memphis is 11-4 and Denver is 15-1.
  • The Grizzlies are 13-11 when they reach the century mark, while the Nuggets are 32-10.
  • Denver is 9-13 ATS on the road, while Memphis is 11-14 ATS at home.
  • The total has gone under in 14 of the Grizzlies’ 25 home games, while 12 of the Nuggets’ 22 road games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Grizzlies are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Denver has 5 overs, while Memphis has 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 125.0 points per game (13.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.2 points per game (1.0 below their season average).
  • The Grizzlies’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 12.0, up from 3.3 for the season.