The Dallas Mavericks (19-45) will be at home in American Airlines Center when they meet the Denver Nuggets (35-28). The games Over/Under (O/U) opened at 219.5 points with Denver set as a 4.5-point favorite. Action starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 6, 2018, and it can be seen on Altitude 2 Sports.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Preview
In the Nuggets last outing, they beat the Cleveland Cavaliers, 126-117. Gary Harris was the top scorer from either team with 32 points on 10-for-17 shooting. Denver’s 0.657 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Cleveland, who had a rate of 0.574. The Nuggets mark was above their season average of 0.532.
The Mavericks are trying to rebound after their 126-109 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last contest. Dennis Smith Jr. led Dallas in scoring with 23 points on 9-for-22 shooting. New Orleans was lights out from beyond the arc (12-26; 46.2 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, held the Pelicans to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.4 (below the 21.4 mark opponents have averaged against Dallas this season).
Dallas may have difficulty getting to the foul line in this contest. The Mavericks rank 27th in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.170, while Denver ranks fourth in FTA rate allowed (0.175). ,
Of Denver’s 63 games, 32 have finished under the O/U total, while 34 of Dallas 64 games have finished under the O/U total. The Nuggets have the substantial advantage straight up (SU) (35-28 vs. 19-45), but the Mavericks have been superior against the spread (ATS) (32-32 vs. 29-31-3).
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Nuggets, it’s been Will Barton, who has averaged 20.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.2 steals, while the Mavericks have received solid contributions from Dwight Powell (10.0 points and 9.0 rebounds).
These two teams have already met three times this year, with the Nuggets leading the series two games to one. Nikola Jokic recorded 11 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists in the most recent game, in which the Nuggets beat the Mavericks 91-89 but could not cover as 8-point favorites. The two teams combined to score 180 points, which was 29 points below the projected point total of 209 points. The Nuggets played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.5 and a free throw rate of 0.136. The Mavericks were 15.4 and 0.118, respectively, for those same stats.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Prediction
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (13.8) while the Mavericks rank 29th (10.1).<
- Denver ranks 17th in blocks per game (4.6) while Dallas ranks 26th (3.8).<
- Denver averages 13.7 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Dallas ranks 27th in fast break points allowed per game (14.2).<
- Denver is 12-16-2 ATS on the road with 15 overs and 15 unders.<
- At home, Dallas is 15-18 ATS with 17 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.<
- When allowing under 100 points, Dallas is 13-11 and Denver is 13-2.<
- The Mavericks are 13-22 when they reach 100 points, while the Nuggets are 29-19.<
- The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (24.7) while the Mavericks rank 16th (22.6).<
- Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while Dallas ranks last (38.3).<
- The Mavericks rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while the Nuggets rank 28th (19.0).<
- The Nuggets rank ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.4) while the Mavericks rank 16th in three pointers allowed per game (29.4).<
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while Dallas ranks 27th (45.5).<
- Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.<
- Over their last five games, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.<
- The Mavericks average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.4, up from 2.9 for the season.<
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 118.0 points per game (9.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.8 points per game (8.3 above their season average).<
