The Miami Heat (36-22) will be at home in AmericanAirlines Arena when they go head-to-head against the Dallas Mavericks (36-23). The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 28, 2020, and will air on Fox Sports – Southwest.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds
The Mavericks come in on a high note after covering the 4-point spread against the San Antonio Spurs in their last outing, 109-103. The Heat, on the other hand, were topped by the Minnesota Timberwolves, 129-126, and were not able to cover as 12-point underdogs. The Dallas game went 21 points under the projected point total of 233, while the Miami game finished 20 points over the projected point total of 235.
The Mavericks had a free throw rate of 0.233 (above their season average of 0.203) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.517 vs. 0.484). Miami, meanwhile, did a great job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (33-43; 76.7 percent). Bam Adebayo put together a solid game for Miami with 22 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic played a massive role in the victory for Dallas, accumulating 26 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds on his way to his 12th triple-double of the season.
In their first matchup this year, Adebayo led the Heat to a 122-118 win. He recorded a triple-double with 18 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. The two teams combined for 240 points, which was well over the projected point total of 215.5, and Miami covered as a 9-point underdog. Miami made good use of their 34 trips to the free throw line, converting on 28 of them (82.4 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, was just 11-17 (64.7 percent).
Oddsmakers tend to place the total low when the Mavericks are playing, as 37 of their 59 contests have gone over the projected point total. Dallas heads into the contest with records of 36-23 straight up (SU) and 35-24 against the spread (ATS).
Games involving the Heat also have typically gone over the total (60.3 percent). Additionally, Miami is 36-22 SU and 29-27-2 ATS.
The Mavericks’ Tim Hardaway Jr. has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 25 points per game. Meanwhile, Adebayo has averaged 17 points,11.4 rebounds,7.4 assists,2.6 steals,1.6 blocks during that same time frame for the Heat.
Miami figures to have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Heat rank sixth in offensive efficiency, while Dallas ranks 18th in defensive efficiency. Also, the Mavericks rank third in turnover percentage (11.9 percent), while the Heat rank 22nd in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.0 percent).
Mavericks vs. Heat Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks are third in the NBA with 3.9 blocks allowed per game while the Heat are fifth with 4.3 blocks allowed per game.
- Dallas averages 41.2 three pointers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Miami ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.8).
- The Mavericks rank seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while the Heat rank 26th (18.3).
- Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.2) while Miami ranks 17th (44.8).
- Dallas averages 24.3 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the league. Miami ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (24.8).
- The Heat rank fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.9) while the Mavericks rank last (16.8).
- The Heat rank 18th in steals per game (7.4) while the Mavericks rank 26th (6.1).
- Miami ranks 26th in points in the paint per game (44.9) while Dallas ranks 27th (44.7).
- Dallas ranks third in second chance points per game (14.6) while Miami ranks 26th (11.9).
- When allowing under 100 points, Dallas is 8-0 and Miami is 7-1.
- The Mavericks are 36-21 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 35-16.
- Miami is 17-9-1 ATS at home, while Dallas is 22-7 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 18 of the Heat’s 27 home games, while 18 of the Mavericks’ 29 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
- In their last five games, Dallas has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 5 overs.
- During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 121.4 points per game (4.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.8 points per game (0.3 above their season average).
- The Heat have been outscored by an average of 2.0 points in their last five games. For the season, Miami has defeated opponents by an average of 3.2 points.
