The Dallas Mavericks (20-10), 10.5-point favorites, will travel to the Chase Center to square off against the Golden State Warriors (9-24). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points and it can be seen on NBC Sports – Bay Area at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 28, 2019.
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors ATS Odds
The Warriors beat the Phoenix Suns in their last outing, 105-96, despite being 11-point underdogs. The Mavericks, meanwhile, topped the San Antonio Spurs, 102-98, but were not able to cover as 7.5-point favorites. The Golden State game went 29 points under the projected point total of 230, while the Dallas game went 26 points under the projected point total of 226.
The Mavericks held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.4 (below their season average of 21.3) and had a better turnover percentage (12.7 vs. 12.7). Meanwhile, Golden State’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Phoenix. The Warriors had a rate of 8.8 (better than their season average of 12.6), while the Suns posted a mark of 23.3 (above their season average of 12.1). Golden State received a boost from D’Angelo Russell, who had 31 points, six assists and five rebounds. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic had a solid performance for Dallas, finishing with 24 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists.
In their first matchup this season, Doncic led the Mavericks to a 142-94 victory. He registered a triple-double with 35 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. The two teams combined for 236 points, which was well over the projected point total of 215.5, and Dallas covered as a 15-point favorite. Dallas made 22 of their 38 three pointers (57.9 percent), while Golden State was 8-27 (29.6 percent).
Of the Mavericks’ 30 games, 19 have finished over the projected point total. Dallas heads into the contest with records of 20-10 straight up (SU) and 18-12 against the spread (ATS).
Unlike Dallas, Warriors games have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (56.3 percent). Additionally, Golden State is 9-24 SU and 15-17 ATS.
The Mavericks’ Kristaps Porzingis has been playing at a high level over his last five games, averaging 22 points,13.8 rebounds,2.6 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Russell has averaged 22 points,6.0 assists during that same time frame for the Warriors.
Dallas could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their high-powered offense faces off against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Mavericks rank first in offensive efficiency, while Golden State ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors ATS Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Mavericks rank 13th in assists per game (24.6) while the Warriors rank 21st in assists allowed per game (24.8).
- Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (40.8) while Golden State ranks 28th (28.8).
- The Mavericks rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while the Warriors rank 23rd (18.3).
- Dallas ranks third in rebounds per game (48.2) while Golden State ranks 22nd (43.9).
- Golden State ranks 14th in fast break points per game (13.3) while Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (16.1).
- The Warriors rank fifth in steals per game (8.4) while the Mavericks rank 28th (6.4).
- The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points per game (14.8) while the Warriors rank 21st in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
- Dallas ranks 24th in points in the paint per game (44.8) while Golden State ranks 26th (44.2).
- Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Golden State ranks 20th (5.4).
- Dallas is 5-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Golden State is 4-1.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Warriors are 9-15 and the Mavericks are 20-9.
- Golden State is 7-8 ATS at home, while Dallas is 12-2 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 10 of the Mavericks’ 14 road games, while 10 of the Warriors’ 15 home games have gone under.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Dallas and Golden State are both 3-2 ATS.
- The Mavericks have 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games, while the Warriors have 4 unders and 1 over
- The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.6, down from 8.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 110.4 points per game (5.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.6 points per game (6.9 below their season average).
