Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions – Week 11 Betting Free Pick

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The Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) are heading north to visit the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. This early afternoon matchup starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX is scheduled to broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

In this Sunday NFC game, Dallas is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 3.5 points. The Cowboys are also receiving -160 moneyline odds while the Lions are +140. It appears that there should be some decent in-game betting opportunities for this matchup, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51.5 points.

The Cowboys are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.2 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-3.

The Lions are down 1.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-5 ATS and also own an O/U record of 6-3.

The Cowboys have gone 5-4 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Lions are 3-5-1 SU.

The Cowboys are hoping to get back in stride after a 28-24 defeat to Minnesota in Week 10Their defense allowed the Vikings to eat up the clock by rushing for 153 yards on 36 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Dalvin Cook was unstoppable for the Vikings in that one with 97 rushing yards and a score on 26 attempts, along with 86 yards on seven catches. On the offense, Dak Prescott completed 28 passes for 397 yards, three scores and one interception. Ezekiel Elliott (just 47 yards on 20 rush attempts) led the ground attack while Amari Cooper (11 receptions, 147 yards, one TD) and Randall Cobb (six catches, 106 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

In Week 10, Chicago knocked off this Detroit crew by a score of 20-13. The Lions defensive unit did its part in the loss, holding the Bears to just 173 passing yards and 81 yards on the ground. Allen Robinson II put up a productive showing for Chicago, recording 86 yards and a score on six catches. For Detroit, Jeff Driskel completed 27-of-46 passes for 269 yards, one touchdown and one interception. J.D. McKissic had an outstanding day in the loss. Along with 36 yards on 10 rush attempts, McKissic also reeled in six catches for 19 yards.

Dallas has run the ball on 44.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Detroit has an overall rush percentage of 41 percent. The Cowboys have produced 138.2 rush yards/game and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Lions are averaging 96.2 rushing yards per game and have two total rush TDs.

If 2019 results are any indication, then it’s looking like the Cowboys could have the edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their running backs has logged 4.8 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Lions have rushed for 3.7 yards per carry and allowed 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Cowboys offense has logged 308.6 yards per contest in the air overall and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Lions have recorded 307.6 pass yards per outing and have 20 total pass scores.

On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 103.4 rush yards and 240.3 pass yards per game. The Detroit defense has allowed 286.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Cowboys are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.75 to opponents, while the Lions have allowed a 7.6 ANY/A.

Offensively, Prescott has put up 2,520 passing yards this year, and has connected on 69 percent of his 284 attempts with 15 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He has an 8.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.29 over the last two games.

Amari Cooper (768 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns this season), Ezekiel Elliott (649 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Randall Cobb (345 receiving yards, two TDs) have all played big roles lately.

On the other sideline, Matthew Stafford has managed to complete 187-of-291 passes for 2,499 yards, 19 TDs and five INTs. Stafford’s ANY/A sits at 8.15 for the season and 9.26 over his last two games.

Marvin Jones Jr. (486 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Kenny Golladay (565 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) and J.D. McKissic (144 rush yards, 94 receiving yards) have combined for 519 total yards and four touchdowns over the past two games.

These two squads met a year ago with the final result being a 26-24 win for Dallas.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions Betting Pick

SU Winner: Cowboys, ATS Winner: Cowboys, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The O/U for Dallas’ last game was set at 48. The over cashed in the team’s 28-24 defeat to Minnesota.
  • Dallas, as a team, has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
  • Detroit has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
  • The Detroit offense has lost six fumbles this season while Dallas has lost three.
  • In its last three contests, Dallas is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The O/U for Detroit’s last outing going into it was 38. The under cashed in the 20-13 defeat to Chicago.
  • In its last three matches, Detroit is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Detroit has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a five-point triumph over New York on October 27th representing its only win over that stretch.
  • Both teams have produced nine pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Cowboys have have made 15 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Lions have accounted for 16 such plays.
  • The Dallas defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Detroit has given up six such plays.
  • The Dallas offense has created four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Detroit has created one such runs.
  • The Cowboys defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Lions have given up five such runs.
  • The Dallas defense has 23 sacks on the year while Detroit has 19.