It’ll be an AAC-CUSA battle as the SMU Mustangs are favorites against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl. This Saturday afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and ABC has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs vs. Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic is entering this game as the underdog and is currently being given 3.5 points. The Mustangs are also receiving -175 moneyline odds while the Owls are +155. There should be multiple decent in-game betting opportunities in this matchup, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) sky-high at 70.5 points.
Sharp bettors are siding with the under. The game’s O/U initially opened at 72.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Mustangs have gained 8.5 units while the Owls are up 5.2 units.
The Mustangs are 10-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Owls are 10-3 SU.
The Mustangs are coming off a resounding 37-20 victory over Tulane on November 30 in which Shane Buechele completed only 15 passes on 27 attempts for 180 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Xavier Jones (125 rushing yards on 18 attempts, two TDs) provided the running attack in the win while James Proche (seven receptions, 71 yards, one TD) and Myron Gailliard (two catches, 34 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Florida Atlantic enters this one after just earning a 49-6 win over UAB two weeks ago. The defense allowed the Blazers to rush for 139 yards on 40 attempts. Spencer Brown had a productive showing in the defeat, recording 65 rushing yards on 18 attempts for UAB. For Florida Atlantic, Chris Robison completed 17-of-37 passes for 267 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. BJ Emmons (40 rushing yards on 12 attempts, two TDs) and Malcolm Davidson (128 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Deangelo Antoine (five receptions, 112 yards, one TD) and Harrison Bryant (four catches, 39 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these squads sports a remarkably similar (52-48) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Mustangs have produced 185.9 rush yards/game and have 33 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Owls haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re logging 164.3 rushing yards per game and have 29 total rush TDs.
The Mustangs offense has tallied 309.3 yards/contest in the air overall and has 33 passing TDs so far. The Owls have produced 278.7 pass yards per game and have 27 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, SMU has allowed 153.7 rush yards and 284.9 pass yards per game. The Florida Atlantic defense has allowed 233.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 136.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Owls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.91 to opposing QBs, while the Mustangs have given up a 6.73 ANY/A.
Offensively, Buechele has already amassed 3,375 passing yards this season. He’s completed 264-of-415 attempts with 31 passing scores and only nine interceptions. He has a sparkling 8.06 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.14 over the last two games.
Xavier Jones (1,188 rushing yards, 20 rush TDs, two receiving touchdowns on the year), James Proche (1,079 receiving yards, 13 receiving TDs) and Rashee Rice (285 receiving yards) have each played key roles of late.
In the other huddle, Chris Robison has connected on 256-of-415 passes for 3,240 yards, 23 TDs and five INTs. Robison’s ANY/A sits at 7.50 for the year and 8.11 over his last two outings.
We also expect the Florida Atlantic offense to utilize a balanced attack this Saturday. Deangelo Antoine (734 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Malcolm Davidson (698 rush yards, nine rush TDs) and Harrison Bryant (929 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) have combined for 417 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns the last two games.
SMU Mustangs at Florida Atlantic Owls NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Florida Atlantic, ATS Winner: Florida Atlantic, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- SMU, as a team, has averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt across its last three games and 4.5 over its last two.
- Florida Atlantic has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.9 over its past two.
- Florida Atlantic has lost three fumbles this season while SMU has lost five.
- Florida Atlantic has won 11 of its last 12 games SU, with a -5-point defeat to Marshall on October 18th representing the one loss over that stretch.
- The Mustangs offense has registered 15 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Owls have put up 11 such plays.
- The SMU defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Florida Atlantic has given up 10 such plays.
- The SMU offense has created 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Florida Atlantic has created 29 such runs.
- The Mustangs defense has allowed 22 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Owls have given up 18 such runs.
- The SMU D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 50 times this year. Florida Atlantic has produced just 34 sacks.
