College Football Free Pick – Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats

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The Wildcats of Kansas State (+4) are gearing up to welcome their Big 12 foe Iowa State Cyclones (-4) to Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The game will get going at 7:00 p.m. ET and FS1 has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Kansas State is a live dog and is currently getting 4 points in this Big 12 game. The Cyclones are also receiving -185 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +165. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points, and it appears that there should be multiple good live betting opportunities in this showdown.

The line initially opened at 3 and the over/under was originally 51.5, so early action appears to be slanted toward both the Cyclones and the under.

The Cyclones are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 2.9 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-5.

The Wildcats are down 4.1 units this season. The team is 8-3 ATS and owns an O/U record of 4-7.

The Cyclones have gone 7-4 straight up (SU), including 5-3 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 7-4 SU overall and are also 4-4 SU in conference play.

The Cyclones just got a 41-31 win over Kansas last week. Brock Purdy completed 29-of-42 passes for 372 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Breece Hall (97 yards on 28 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the ground attack in the win. Deshaunte Jones (seven receptions, 74 yards) and Charlie Kolar (six catches, 100 yards) shared the receiving duties.

Kansas State just picked up a 30-27 win over Texas Tech. The team’s defense allowed the Red Raiders to pass for 368 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 144 yards. RJ Turner was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 141 yards on seven catches for Texas Tech. For Kansas State, Skylar Thompson completed 14-of-28 passes for 246 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. James Gilbert (61 yards on 12 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the win while Chabastin Taylor (three receptions, 74 yards, one TD) and Phillip Brooks (two catches, 20 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.

Iowa State has run the ball on 46.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Kansas State has a rush percentage of 62.5 percent. The Cyclones have produced 148.5 rush yards per game (including 135.9 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 21 scores via handoffs this year. The Wildcats are totaling 185.2 rushing yards per game (149.6 in conference) and have 26 total rush TDs.

It seems like the Cyclones ought to have an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has produced 4.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.7 YPC to opponents. The Wildcats have registered 4.4 yards per carry and given up 5.1 YPC to opponents.

The Cyclones offensive scheme has averaged 330.5 yards in the air overall (323.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 28 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 197.4 pass yards per outing (206 against Big 12 foes) and have 12 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Iowa State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 125 yards and pass for 243.9 yards per game. The Kansas State defense has allowed 214.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.5 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.77 to opponents, while the Cyclones have given up a 6.42 ANY/A.

Offensively, Purdy has already put up 3,221 passing yards this season. He’s completed 250-of-367 attempts with 24 scores through the air and eight interceptions. Purdy has a sparkling 8.63 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.29 over the last two outings.

Skylar Thompson has completed 138-of-232 passes for 1,835 yards, 11 TDs and two INTs for Kansas State. His ANY/A sits at 7.55 for the year and 6.30 across his past two outings.

When these two teams faced each other a year ago, Iowa State emerged victorious by a final score of 42-38.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats Bedding Prediction

SU Winner: Kansas State, ATS Winner: Kansas State, O/U: Over

Team Betting Trends

  • The Over/Under for Iowa State’s previous game was set at 58.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-31 victory over Kansas.
  • As a team, Iowa State has averaged 4.1 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 3.5 over its last two.
  • Kansas State has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.3 over its last two.
  • The Kansas State offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Iowa State has lost five.
  • In its last three matches, Iowa State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • The Over/Under for Kansas State’s last matchup was set at 55.5. The over cashed in the 30-27 win over Texas Tech.
  • In its last three games, Kansas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Cyclones offense has produced 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Wildcats have put up five such plays.
  • The Iowa State defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Kansas State has given up four such plays.
  • The Iowa State offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Kansas State has created 15 such runs.
  • The Cyclones defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Wildcats have given up 16 such runs.
  • The Iowa State defense has 25 sacks on the year while Kansas State has 20.