A couple of schools that like to deploy their running games, Head Coach Chad Lunsford and the Georgia Southern Eagles (-11.5) are set to pay a visit to their conference nemesis South Alabama Jaguars at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET and interested parties can watch the action live on ESPNU.
Betting Preview: South Alabama Jaguars vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
In this Thursday Sun Belt game, Georgia Southern is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 11.5 points. The Eagles are also receiving -470 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +340. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points, and some decent in-game betting possibilities may be unveiled throughout this matchup.
Sharp bettors are hammering both the Jags and the under. This game’s opening line was originally set at 13 and the O/U was initially 48.5.
The Eagles have lost 1.0 unit this season and are 1-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-1.
The Jaguars have lost 2.0 units for moneyline bettors in 2019. They’re 2-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-4.
The Eagles have gone 1-3 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against SBC opponents. The Jaguars are 1-4 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.
The Eagles look to get back on track after a 37-24 defeat to Louisiana last week. Shai Werts completed just six-of-12 passes for 37 yards. Werts (93 rushing yards on 21 attempts) also led the ground attack in the loss and was complemented by J.D. King (59 yards on 13 carries, one TD). NaJee Thompson (four receptions, 24 yards) and Colby Ransom (one catch, nine yards) handled the receiving duties.
One week ago, Louisiana-Monroe knocked off this South Alabama crew by a score of 30-17. The Jags defensive unit let the Warhawks rush for 142 yards on 32 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Josh Johnson put up a productive outing in the win, recording 93 rushing yards on 15 attempts for Louisiana-Monroe. For South Alabama, Cephus Johnson completed 14-of-26 passes for 114 yards and one interception. Johnson (72 yards on 21 rush attempts, two TDs) and Tra Minter (150 yards on 19 carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Minter (four receptions, 32 yards) and Jalen Tolbert (four catches, 44 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Georgia Southern has run the ball on 81.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Alabama has an overall rush percentage of 64.9 percent. The Eagles have produced 201.8 rush yards per game and have six scores via handoffs this year. The Jags are totaling 193.4 rush yards per game and have seven total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Eagles should hold an advantage in terms of RB effectiveness, since their backfield has produced 4.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents. The Jaguars have recorded 4.3 yards per carry and given up 4.6 YPC to opponents.
The Eagles offensive scheme has logged 49.8 yards/game through the air overall and has yet to record a passing TDs so far. The Jags have recorded 140 pass yards per contest and have four total pass scores.
Georgia Southern has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 135.5 yards and throw for 277.8 yards per game. The South Alabama defense has given up 223.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 179.0 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Eagles have given up an ANY/A of 8.41 to opposing QBs, while the Jags are yielding an ANY/A of 8.03.
Justin Tomlin probably has the advantage over Johnson in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 5.64for the season (and 7.30 over the past two games). Johnson’s ANY/A is 2.75 for the season and 1.47 over his last two outings.
These two schools met last year with the final outcome being a 48-13 win for Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars Free Pick
SU Winner: Georgia Southern, ATS Winner: Georgia Southern, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The South Alabama defense has notched seven sacks on the year while Georgia Southern has six.
- Both offenses have lost five fumbles this season.
- Both teams have produced one pass play of 40+ yards. The Eagles have have made two pass plays of 30+ yards while the Jaguars have created three such plays.
- The Georgia Southern defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while South Alabama has given up five such plays.
- The Georgia Southern offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while South Alabama has created 10 such runs.
- The Eagles defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Jaguars have given up eight such runs.
- The O/U for South Alabama’s previous match was set at 59. The under cashed in the team’s 30-17 loss to Louisiana-Monroe.
- Over its last three games, South Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three games, Georgia Southern is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Georgia Southern’s last game was set at 56. The over cashed in the team’s 37-24 loss to Louisiana.
- Georgia Southern has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its last two.
- South Alabama has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.5 over its past two.
