In a matchup that showcases two squads that are nationally ranked in the Top 21 overall, the No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3) are ready to take on the No. 18 Baylor Bears at Boone Pickens Stadium. FOX owns the TV rights and the game’s scheduled to get going at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears
Baylor is the road underdog in this Big 12 matchup and is currently being given 3 points. The Bears are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Cowboys are -155. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 64.5 points, and if one program can create a bunch of points early, it would likely produce a worthwhile betting scenario in-game.
Sharp bettors have been siding with the over, as the game’s O/U was set originally at 63.5.
The profitable Bears have gained 3.2 units so far in 2019 and are 3-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-3.
The Cowboys are down 1.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-1-1 ATS and also have an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Bears are 6-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against conference opponents. The Cowboys are 4-2 SU overall and are also 1-2 SU in conference play.
When these two schools met a year ago, Baylor got the victory 35-31.
The Bears are looking to remain unbeaten following a 33-30 victory over Texas Tech last week. Their D allowed the Red Raiders to pass for 362 yards while rushing for 148 yards and two scores. SaRodorick Thompson was unmatched for the Red Raiders in that one with 153 rushing yards and both touchdowns on 28 attempts. On the offensive side, Charlie Brewer completed 24-of-37 passes for 352 yards and three interceptions. John Lovett (77 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and the signal-caller Brewer (55 yards on 15 carries, three TDs) led the ground attack. R.J. Sneed (six receptions, 84 yards) and Chris Platt (four catches, 29 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Oklahoma State just came up short in a 45-35 shootout to Texas Tech two weeks ago. The defense allowed the Red Raiders to pass for 424 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 162 yards. T.J. Vasher put up a solid showing in the win, recording 110 yards on five catches for Texas Tech. For Oklahoma State, Spencer Sanders completed 22-of-37 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Chuba Hubbard (156 rushing yards on 34 attempts, three TDs) and the signal-caller Sanders (46 yards on 19 carries) handled the running attack as Tylan Wallace (11 receptions, 85 yards, one TD) and Dillon Stoner (five catches, 76 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Baylor’s run the ball on 52.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Oklahoma State has a rush percentage of 63.3 percent. The Bears have produced 199.2 rush yards per game (including 145 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 18 scores on the ground this year. The Cowboys are putting up 279 rush yards per game (272.7 in conference) and have 17 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Bears could own the edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed just 39 sacks while the D-line logged 24 sacks. The Cowboys offensive line has allowed 34 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 39 times.
The Bears offense has logged 276.3 yards per game in the air overall (309 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Cowboys have produced 249.3 pass yards per outing (237 against Big 12 competition) and also have 12 total pass scores.
Defensively, Baylor appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 113.5 yards and pass for 226.7 yards per game. The Oklahoma State D has given up 249.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 165.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bears are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.68 to opponents, while the Cowboys have allowed a 7.48 ANY/A.
Offensively, Brewer is up to 1,324 passing yards this season, and has connected on 66 percent of his 156 attempts with 10 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Brewer’s got an 8.31 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.98 over the last two games.
In the home locker room, Spencer Sanders has connected on 84-of-133 passes for 1,180 yards, nine TDs and six INTs. Sanders’ ANY/A stands at 7.17 for the season and 3.17 over his past two outings.
Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Oklahoma State, ATS Winner: Oklahoma State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Baylor defensive unit has 23 sacks on the year while Oklahoma State has just eight.
- Oklahoma State has lost five fumbles this season while Baylor has lost three.
- The Bears offense has created four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Cowboys have accounted for seven such plays.
- The Baylor defense has allowed one pass play of 40+ yards, while Oklahoma State has given up five such plays.
- The Baylor offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Oklahoma State has created 21 such runs.
- The Bears defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cowboys have given up four such runs.
- The O/U for Oklahoma State’s previous game was set at 63. The over cashed in the 45-35 loss to Texas Tech.
- In its last three games, Oklahoma State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three games, Baylor is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Baylor’s previous game was 59. The over cashed in the team’s 33-30 win over Texas Tech.
- As a team, Baylor has averaged 4.2 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.8 over its last two.
- Oklahoma State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.9 over its last two.
