The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs are ready to do battle on the grass at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Kickoff for this matchup is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN.
Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 20.5 points to Mississippi State. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 62.5 points, and if one team gets out in front early on, it would likely result in a worthy in-game betting opportunity.
The game’s total has not changed after it was set initially at 62.5. Having said that, the opening line was 19 and has recently moved up to 20.5.
The Crimson Tide are down 1.2 units so far and 4-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 5-4.
The lackluster Bulldogs have lost 4.5 units this season. The team is 3-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-3.
The Crimson Tide have gone 8-1 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 4-5 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play.
The Crimson Tide are looking to get back in stride after a 46-41 loss to LSU last week. Tua Tagovailoa completed only 21-of-40 passes for 418 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Najee Harris (146 yards on 19 rush attempts, one TD) led the running attack in the loss. Devonta Smith (seven receptions, 213 yards, two TDs) and Jerry Jeudy (five catches, 71 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
Mississippi State enters this one after just earning a blowout 54-24 win over Arkansas back in Week 10. The defense allowed the Razorbacks to rush for 184 yards on 25 attempts, including two rush TDs. Rakeem Boyd was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 114 rushing yards and a score on 11 attempts for Arkansas. For Mississippi State, Tommy Stevens completed 12-of-18 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns. Kylin Hill (234 yards on 21 rush attempts, three TDs) and the signal-caller Stevens (74 yards on 15 carries) mounted the ground attack in the win as Deddrick Thomas (two receptions, 59 yards) and Austin Williams (two catches, 18 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Alabama’s run the ball on 49.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has a rush percentage of 62.4 percent. The Crimson Tide have run for 163 yards/game (including 138 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 17 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bulldogs are averaging 217 rush yards per game (213.5 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Crimson Tide may be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed just 15 sacks while their D-line logged 45 sacks. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, have allowed 25 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 39 occasions.
The Tide offense has logged a ridiculous 347.4 yards per contest in the air overall (356.2 per game against conference opposition) and has 36 passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have recorded 190.8 pass yards per game (192 against SEC foes) and have 14 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Alabama should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 131.7 rush yards and 203.8 pass yards per game. The Mississippi State defense has allowed 227.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tide are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.60 to opponents, while the Bulldogs have given up a 7.53 ANY/A.
Tagovailoa has been more effective than Shrader lately, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 12.40for the season and 10.83 over the past two outings. Shrader’s ANY/A is 5.84 for the season and 6.06 across his last two games.
When these two squads met last year, Alabama knocked off Mississippi State easily 24-0.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Mississippi State, ATS Winner: Mississippi State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Alabama D has sacked opposing QBs 23 times this year. Mississippi State has recorded just 13 sacks.
- The Mississippi State offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Alabama has let three get away.
- The Crimson Tide offense has recorded 13 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have put up two such plays.
- The Alabama defense has allowed one pass play of 40+ yards, while Mississippi State has given up five such plays.
- The Alabama offense has created nine rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Mississippi State has created 17 such runs.
- Both defenses have allowed 12 rushing play of 20 or more yards. The Crimson Tide have given up 37 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bulldogs have given up 48 such plays.
- The O/U for Mississippi State’s last game was 58.5. The over cashed in the 54-24 victory over Arkansas.
- In its last three matchups, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matches, Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Alabama’s previous game was set at 65. The over cashed in the team’s 46-41 defeat to LSU.
- Alabama, as a team, has produced 4.4 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.6 over its last two.
- Mississippi State has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 7.4 over its last two.
