The Colorado Buffaloes (+13) are heading west to visit their Pac-12 nemesis California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. The game starts at 7:00 p.m. ET and Pac-12 Networks is scheduled to broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Colorado Buffaloes vs. California Golden Bears
Colorado is a significant road underdog in this Pac-12 matchup and is currently getting 13 points. The Buffaloes are also receiving +360 moneyline odds while the Golden Bears are -525. This Pac-12 matchup should provide several decent in-game betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 43 points.
Sharp bettors are siding with the Golden Bears, as the opening line was -11. The game’s total has yet to change after it was set initially at 43.
The Buffaloes are 5-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.7 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-8.
The Golden Bears have gained 1.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 1-8.
The Buffaloes have gone 5-6 straight up (SU), including 2-6 SU against conference opponents. The Golden Bears are 6-4 SU overall and 3-4 SU in conference play.
The Buffaloes dropped one to Utah 30-7 in a thumping where the Buffaloes completed 21-of-33 passes for 162 yards and two interceptions. Steven Montez went 13-for-22 for 84 yards and one interception while Sam Noyer completed four-of-six for 23 yards. Travon McMillian (41 rushing yards on 13 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Laviska Shenault Jr. (nine receptions, 64 yards) and Juwann Winfree (three catches, 54 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
The California Golden Bears take the field on Saturday having just earned a 15-14 win over USC. The allowed the Trojans to pass for 180 yards and rush for 97 more. Aca’Cedric Ware was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 103 rushing yards on 16 attempts for USC. For California, Chase Garbers completed 14-of-26 passes for 93 yards and one touchdown. Patrick Laird (71 rushing yards on 19 attempts) handled the running attack while Laird (five receptions, 18 yards) and Jeremiah Hawkins (three catches, 11 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Colorado has run the ball on 51.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while California has a rush percentage of 54.2 percent. The Buffaloes have produced 142.5 rush yards/game (including 119.4 per game versus Pac-12 opponents) and have 20 scores on the ground this year. The Golden Bears are totaling 169.5 rushing yards per game (165.0 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Golden Bears might hold an advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game, since their backfield has logged 4.4 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Buffaloes have tallied 3.8 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents.
The Buffaloes offense has averaged 256.8 yards in the air overall (244.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Golden Bears have recorded 194.4 pass yards per contest (191 in the Pac-12) and have 13 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Colorado has allowed 150.2 rush yards and 245.5 pass yards per game. The California defense has allowed 183.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 134.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Golden Bears are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.81 to opposing QBs, while the Buffaloes have allowed a 6.40 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Montez is up to 2,480 yards this year, and has completed 67 percent of his 331 attempts with 17 scores through the air and six interceptions. He’s got a 6.74 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.21 over the past two outings.
Laviska Shenault Jr. Travon McMillian and Juwann Winfree have collectively accounted for 424 total yards and two touchdowns as a trio over the last two outings.
In the other huddle, Chase Garbers has managed to complete 96-of-150 passes for 973 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Garbers’ ANY/A sits at 5.80 for the season and 3.55 over his last two outings.
Similar to the Buffaloes, expect a balanced approach offensively from California this Saturday. Patrick Laird, Chase Garbers and Vic Wharton III have combined for 356 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns as a trio the last two games.
When these two schools faced one another a year ago, Colorado emerged victorious by a final score of 44-28.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. California Golden Bears Betting Pick
SU Winner: California, ATS Winner: California, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Buffaloes offense has recorded 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Golden Bears have accounted for four such plays.
- The Colorado defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while California has given up five such plays.
- The Colorado offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while California has created nine such runs.
- The Buffaloes defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Golden Bears have given up eight such runs.
- The Colorado D has 26 sacks on the year while California has 23.
- Colorado, as a team, has averaged 1.8 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 2.2 over its last two.
- California has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.3 over its past two.
- In its last three games, California is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Colorado’s last game was set at 48. The under cashed in the team’s 30-7 loss to Utah.
- Over its last three matchups, Colorado is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for California’s last match going into it was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 15-14 win over USC.
- California has won four of its last five games SU, with a -6-point defeat to Washington State on November 3rd accounting for its only loss over that stretch.
