The No. 22 Mississippi State Bulldogs (+7) are paying a visit to their SEC rival No. 5 LSU Tigers (-7) at Tiger Stadium. Kickoff for this crucialmatchup is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to the action on ESPN.
Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers
Mississippi State is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 7 points in this SEC game. The Bulldogs are also receiving +210 moneyline odds while the Tigers are -270. There should be multiple solid live betting scenarios during this game, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 44.5 points.
The Bulldogs have lost 4.7 units so far and are 4-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-4.
The surprising Tigers have gained 7.4 units this season. They’re 4-3 ATS and the over’s hit in five of their games.
The Bulldogs are 4-2 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Tigers are 6-1 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 23-9 win over Auburn on October 6 where Nick Fitzgerald completed only nine-of-17 passes for 69 yards and one interception. Fitzgerald (195 yards on 28 rush attempts, two TDs) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Kylin Hill (126 yards on 23 carries) in the win. Farrod Green (two receptions, 23 yards) and Justin Johnson (two catches, 10 yards) shared the receiving duties.
LSU is coming off of a 36-16 win over Georgia. The defense let the Bulldogs run for 113 yards on 30 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. D’Andre Swift was a bright spot in the loss, posting 72 rushing yards on 12 attempts for Georgia. For LSU, Joe Burrow completed 15-of-30 passes for 200 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (145 yards on 19 rush attempts) and Nick Brossette (64 yards on 16 carries, one TD) mounted the ground game in the win as Justin Jefferson (six receptions, 108 yards) and Terrace Marshall Jr. (two catches, 43 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Mississippi State has run the ball on 60.0 percent of its offensive possessions while LSU has an overall rush percentage of 61.1. The Bulldogs have run for 240.7 yards per game (including 169.7 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 15 scores via handoffs this year. The Tigers are putting up 202.1 rushing yards per game (214.3 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.
The Bulldogs offensive scheme has tallied 190.0 yards per game in the air overall (104.0 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Tigers have recorded 202.1 pass yards per outing (233 against SEC foes) and have six total pass TDs.
Mississippi State should have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 115.3 yards and pass for 174.3 yards per game. The LSU defense has allowed 219.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 120.4 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bulldogs have given up an ANY/A of 3.92 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers are yielding an ANY/A of 4.21.
Offensively, Fitzgerald is up to 611 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 50-of-97 attempts with four scores through the air and three interceptions. Fitzgerald has a 5.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 1.69 over the past two games.
In the host locker room, Joe Burrow has completed 85-of-161 passes for 1,223 yards, six TDs and zero INTs. Burrow’s ANY/A sits at 7.49 for the year and 3.46 over his past two games.
When these two programs met a year ago, Mississippi State knocked LSU off handily 37-7.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers Free Prediction
SU Winner: Mississippi State, ATS Winner: Mississippi State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The O/U for Mississippi State’s last game was set at 45. The under cashed in the team’s 23-9 win over Auburn.
- Mississippi State, as a team, has averaged 4.4 yards per rush attempt across its last three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
- LSU has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.9 over its past two.
- The LSU offense has lost four fumbles this season while Mississippi State has yet to let any get away.
- In its last three games, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for LSU’s last outing was 50. The over cashed in the 36-16 triumph over Georgia.
- In its last three matches, LSU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Bulldogs offense has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have accounted for five such plays.
- The Mississippi State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while LSU has given up three such plays.
- The Mississippi State offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while LSU has created nine such runs.
- The Bulldogs defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Tigers have given up four such runs.
- The Mississippi State D has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this season. LSU has recorded 16 sacks.
