The Liberty Flames (-4) and New Mexico State Aggies will face off on the turf at Aggie Memorial Stadium. This conference game will get underway at 8:00 p.m. ET. These two IndFBS foes did not get a chance to play each other last season.
Betting Preview: New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames
In this Saturday Independents (FBS) game, Liberty is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Flames are also receiving -185 moneyline odds while the Aggies are +165. If one team can create a bunch of points early it would result in a nice betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 62.5 points.
Early action has been leaning to both the Flames and the over. This opening line was initially 3 while the game’s total was originally set at 61.5.
The Flames have gained 2.0 units so far and are 2-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-2.
The Aggies are down 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-4 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-2.
The Flames have gone 2-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 1-4 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Flames are coming off a 52-43 win over New Mexico last week where the Flames completed 27-of-47 passes for 472 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Stephen Calvert went 24-for-41 for 417 yards, three touchdowns and one interception while Mason Cunningham completed two-of-five for 16 yards. Frankie Hickson (only 65 rushing yards on 27 attempts, but two TDs) and Peytton Pickett (39 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) propelled the ground attack while Antonio Gandy-Golden (11 receptions, 245 yards, one TD) and B.J. Farrow (seven catches, 122 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.
The New Mexico State Aggies just picked up a 27-20 win over UTEP. The defense allowed the Miners to rush for 235 yards on 64 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Quardraiz Wadley was a bright spot in the loss for UTEP, accounting for 111 rushing yards on 20 attempts. For New Mexico State, Josh Adkins completed nine-of-18 passes for 156 yards and one touchdown. Adkins (16 yards on 12 rush attempts) and Christian Gibson (103 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the running game while Johnathan Boone (three receptions, 60 yards) and Royce Caldwell (two catches, 60 yards, one TD) led the New Mexico State pass-catchers in the win.
Liberty has run the ball on 47.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico State has a rush percentage of 44.8 percent. The Flames have produced 141.5 rush yards per game and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Aggies are logging 82.4 rushing yards per game and have only one rush TD.
The Flames offense has tallied a superb 338.5 yards/game through the air overall and has 10 passing scores so far. The Aggies have produced 190.6 pass yards per outing and have five total pass TD.
Liberty has let opponents run for an average of 283.8 yards and throw for 196.8 yards per game. The New Mexico State D has given up 171.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 260.0 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.15 to opponents, while the Flames have allowed a 6.34 ANY/A.
Calvert probably has the advantage over Adkins in this matchup, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 9.71for the year and 7.12 over the last two games. Adkins’ ANY/A is 7.57 for the year and 5.88 over his last two games.
Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies Free Pick
SU Winner: Liberty, ATS Winner: Liberty, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The New Mexico State defense has registered 14 sacks on the year while Liberty has just four.
- Both teams have lost three fumbles this year.
- The Flames offense has recorded five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Aggies have accounted for two such plays.
- The Liberty defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico State has given up three such plays.
- The Liberty offense has created four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while New Mexico State has created six such runs.
- The Flames defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Aggies have given up nine such runs.
- As a team, Liberty has averaged 3.03703703703704 yards per carry across its past three games and 2.6 over its last two.
- New Mexico State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.9 over its last two.
