The Kentucky Wildcats (-9) will clash with the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium. Kickoff for this conference game is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to SEC Network.
Betting Preview: Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
In this Saturday Southeastern game, Kentucky is labeled as the big favorite and is currently giving up 9 points. The Wildcats are also receiving -360 moneyline odds while the Commodores are +280. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 42.5 points. If the underdog gets out in front early, it will likely result in a reasonable betting opportunity in-game.
Square bettors are hammering the Wildcats, as the opening line was 8. The total has not changed after it was set initially at 42.5.
The Wildcats have gained 1.7 units so far in 2019 and are 6-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-6.
The Commodores have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 12.0 units. They’re 1-8 ATS and also own an O/U record of 3-6.
The Wildcats have gone 4-5 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against SEC opponents. The Commodores are 2-7 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.
When these two teams faced each other last year, Kentucky won by a touchdown 14-7.
The Wildcats came up short to Tennessee 17-13 in a game where the D did its part in the loss, holding the Volunteers to just 213 passing yards and 83 rushing yards. Marquez Callaway had a good day for the Volunteers in that one with 103 yards and a score on four catches. On the offense, Lynn Bowden Jr. completed four-of-7 passes for just 25 yards and one interception. Bowden Jr. (114 rushing yards on 26 attempts) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Asim Rose (44 yards on 16 carries, one TD). Josh Ali (one receptions, 12 yards) and Clevan Thomas Jr. (one catch, eight yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Vanderbilt were just blanked 56-0 by Florida. The team’s defense allowed the Gators to pass for 410 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 150 yards and four scores. Trevon Grimes had a good outing, recording 95 yards on four catches for Florida. For Vanderbilt, Deuce Wallace completed seven-of-18 passes for 60 yards and one interception. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (28 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and Keyon Brooks (34 yards on 11 carries) mounted the running game while James Bostic (two receptions, 32 yards) and Cam Johnson (two catches, 16 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Kentucky has run the ball on 63.5 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 65.9 percent across possessions in conference play. Vanderbilt has a rush percentage of 48.4 percent, and has run the ball 53.2 percent of the time when facing SEC opponents. The Wildcats have produced 212.6 rush yards per game (including 214 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Commodores are putting up 117.6 rushing yards per game (106.2 in conference) and have seven total rush TDs.
Judging by the numbers so far, it appears that the Wildcats may have an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, since their running backs has generated 5.1 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.9 to opponents. The Commodores have recorded 3.8 yards per carry and allowed 5.2 YPC to opponents.
The Wildcats offensive scheme has averaged 139.7 yards in the air overall (112.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has seven passing TDs so far. The Commodores have produced 178.6 pass yards per game (143 in the SEC) and also have seven total pass scores.
Kentucky seems to hold an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 164.7 yards and pass for 184.1 yards per game. The Vanderbilt D has given up 268.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 196.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wildcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.28 to opposing QBs, while the Commodores have allowed a staggering 8.74 ANY/A.
Bowden Jr. has been more effective than Wallace of late, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 2.76for the season and 1.44 over the last two outings. Wallace’s ANY/A is 1.19 for the year and -2.12 over his past two outings.
Kentucky Wildcats at Vanderbilt Commodores Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Kentucky, ATS Winner: Kentucky, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Kentucky’s last game going into it was 42. The under cashed in the team’s 17-13 defeat to Tennessee.
- Kentucky has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.3 over its last two.
- Vanderbilt has averaged 2.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 2.4 over its last two.
- Vanderbilt has lost three fumbles this season while Kentucky has let nine get away.
- In its last three games, Kentucky is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Vanderbilt’s last outing was set at 50. The over cashed in the 56-0 defeat to Florida.
- In its last three matches, Vanderbilt is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Vanderbilt has dropped five of its last six games SU, with a seven-point victory over Missouri on October 19th representing the only win over that span.
- The Wildcats offense has recorded three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Commodores have accounted for six such plays.
- The Kentucky defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Vanderbilt has given up eight such plays.
- The Kentucky offense has created 27 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Vanderbilt has created 10 such runs.
- The Wildcats defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Commodores have given up 14 such runs.
- The Kentucky D has 20 sacks on the year while Vanderbilt has just 13.
