The Aggies of Utah State (+7.5) are set to welcome the No. 20 Boise State Broncos (-7.5) to Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. This showdown will kick off pretty late for bettors on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CBS Sports Network.
Betting Preview: Boise State Broncos at Utah State Aggies
Utah State is a noticeable home underdog in this MWC game and is currently being given 7.5 points. The Broncos are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Aggies are +250. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 53.5 points, and if one team can get out in front early, it’ll probably generate a decent betting scenario in-game.
The sharp action is siding with the Aggies, as the opening line was 8.5. The total has not changed after being initially placed at 53.5.
The profitable Broncos have recorded 4.1 units so far in 2019 and are 6-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U mark of 5-5.
The Aggies have gained 0.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-6.
The Broncos have gone 9-1 straight up (SU), including 6-0 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 6-4 SU overall and 5-1 SU in conference play.
These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 33-24 win for Boise State.
The Broncos hope to keep things rolling following a 42-9 victory over New Mexico last week. Jaylon Henderson completed only 15 passes on 28 attempts for 292 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Andrew Van Buren (only 33 rushing yards on 10 attempts) and George Holani (73 yards on seven carries) led the ground attack while Khalil Shakir (five receptions, 96 yards, one TD) and John Hightower (four catches, 124 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Utah State is coming off of a 26-21 win over Wyoming. As a group, the Aggies collectively completed 21-of-35 passes for 317 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jordan Love went 18-for-29 for 282 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while Henry Colombi was three-of-six for 35 yards. Gerold Bright (56 yards on 17 rush attempts) and Jaylen Warren (38 yards on 10 carries) mounted the running game as Deven Thompkins (four receptions, 51 yards) and Jordan Nathan (four catches, 24 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Boise State has run the ball on 53.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has an overall rush percentage of 47.5 percent. The Broncos have produced 173.2 rush yards/game (including 173.2 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 20 scores on the ground this year. The Aggies are logging 147.3 rush yards per game (137 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Broncos should have the edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 4.5 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.4 to opponents. The Aggies have ran for 4.3 yards per carry and allowed 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Broncos offensive scheme has averaged 281.6 yards through the air overall (266.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 23 passing TDs so far. The Aggies have put up 283.2 pass yards per outing (248 against MWC competition) and have 15 total pass scores.
Boise State should hold an edge in both defensive phases. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 117 yards and pass for 221 yards per game. The Utah State D has allowed 251 yards per game to opposing passers and 180.0 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Broncos have given up an ANY/A of 6.13 to opposing QBs, while the Aggies are yielding an ANY/A of 6.4.
Passing-wise, Henderson has put up 380 yards this year, and has completed 55 percent of his 40 attempts with four scores through the air and one interception. He has a sparkling 9.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.50 over the last two games.
John Hightower (103 rushing yards, 708 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns this season), Khalil Shakir (545 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and George Holani (662 rush yards, five rush TDs, 105 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played big roles of late.
Jordan Love has connected on 194-of-324 passes for 2,296 yards, 11 TDs and 14 INTs for Utah State. His ANY/A sits at 5.41 for the year and 9.34 across his past two games.
Siaosi Mariner (650 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns this season), Gerold Bright (591 rush yards, five rush TDs, 160 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Deven Thompkins (344 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have combined for 563 total yards and five touchdowns over the past two games.
Boise State Broncos at Utah State Aggies NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Boise State, ATS Winner: Boise State, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Utah State offense has lost six fumbles this season while Boise State has let seven get away.
- The Boise State D has 29 sacks on the year while Utah State has just 17.
- Boise State has rushed for 4.8 yards per attempt over its past three games and 4.7 over its last two.
- Utah State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.1 over its last two.
- Over its last three matches, Utah State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Boise State’s last game going into it was 57. The under cashed in the team’s 42-9 win over New Mexico.
- Over its last three games, Boise State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Utah State’s last outing was set at 51.5. The under cashed in the 26-21 victory over Wyoming.
