The Texas Longhorns (+6) aren’t traveling far to face their in-conference counterpart No. 13 Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium. FS1 will broadcast the action and this critical afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears
In this Saturday Big 12 game, Baylor is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 6 points. The Longhorns are also receiving +185 moneyline odds while the Bears are -230. It appears that there will likely be some good live betting scenarios while this match is taking place, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 59 points.
The general public siding with both the Bears and the under. The opening line was originally -4 while the O/U was placed initially at 61.
The Longhorns are 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.0 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 6-4.
The surprising Bears are up 6.1 units this season. The team is 6-4 ATS and has an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Longhorns have gone 6-4 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against conference opponents. The Bears are 9-1 SU overall and are also 6-1 SU in conference play.
The Longhorns will attempt to get back on track after a narrow 23-21 defeat to Iowa State last week where their D allowed the Cyclones to pass for 354 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 112 yards. Deshaunte Jones posted a productive day for the Cyclones in that one with 144 yards and a score on seven catches. Offensively, Sam Ehlinger completed only 22 passes on 40 attempts for 273 yards and three touchdowns. Devin Duvernay (nine receptions, 107 yards) and Brennan Eagles (four catches, 84 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
Baylor just came up short in a 34-31 barnburner to Oklahoma. The defense allowed the Sooners to rush for 228 yards on 52 attempts. Kennedy Brooks put up a good showing in the win for Oklahoma, recording 93 rushing yards on 18 attempts. For Baylor, Charlie Brewer completed 18-of-29 passes for 194 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Brewer (65 rushing yards on 17 attempts, two TDs) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Denzel Mims (six receptions, 92 yards, two TDs) and Josh Fleeks (three catches, six yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Texas has run the ball on 48.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Baylor has a rush percentage of 54.1 percent. The Longhorns have rushed for 161.1 yards per game (including 166.6 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 18 scores via handoffs this year. The Bears are averaging 180.7 rushing yards per game (149.6 in conference) and have 25 total rush TDs.
If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it seems like the Bears ought to own the advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has generated 5.0 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Longhorns have tallied 4.4 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Longhorns offensive scheme has averaged 300.6 yards in the air overall (279.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 27 passing scores so far. The Bears have produced 263.6 pass yards per game (272 in the Big 12) and have 19 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Texas has allowed opponents to run for an average of 144.4 yards and throw for 305 yards per game. The Baylor defense has allowed 219 yards per game to opposing passers and 137.2 yards per game on the ground. The Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.37 to opposing QBs, while the Longhorns have given up a 7.45 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Ehlinger is up to 2,651 yards on the year. He’s connected on 64 percent of his 343 attempts with 26 passing scores and only seven interceptions. He’s got a 7.40 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.62 over the last two games.
Devin Duvernay, Keaontay Ingram and Collin Johnson have collectively accounted for 524 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the other locker room, Charlie Brewer has completed 168-of-251 passes for 2,337 yards, 16 TDs and four INTs. Brewer’s ANY/A stands at 8.60 for the year and 4.53 over his past two outings.
Similar to the Longhorns, expect a balanced attack offensively from Baylor this Saturday. Denzel Mims, Charlie Brewer and John Lovett have collectively accounted for 334 total yards and seven touchdowns as a trio over the last couple of games.
When these two schools faced one another a year ago, Texas knocked Baylor off by two field goals 23-17.
Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Baylor, ATS Winner: Baylor, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Baylor offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Texas has lost four.
- The Baylor defense has notched 33 sacks on the year while Texas has just 17.
- As a team, Texas has averaged 4.2 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.3 over its last two.
- Baylor has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.8 over its past two.
- In its last three games, Baylor is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Texas’ last game was set at 65. The under cashed in the team’s 23-21 loss to Iowa State.
- Over its last three matchups, Texas is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Baylor’s previous match was set at 68.5. The under cashed in the 34-31 loss to Oklahoma.
