In a matchup featuring two programs ranked in the Top 25 nationally, the No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs (+18) are set to take on the Oklahoma Sooners (-18) at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. This important Big 12 matchup kicks off at 8:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action live on FOX.
Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs
In this Saturday Big 12 game, Oklahoma has been projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 18 points. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently have to lay down $1,500 in order to win $100 back on the Sooners (-1500). The Horned Frogs are getting +810 moneyline odds. If one side gets out in front in the early stages it will generate a decent in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 65.5 points.
This game’s total hasn’t changed after being set initially at 65.5. Having said that, the opening line was -17 and early action has swayed toward the Sooners.
The disappointing Horned Frogs are down 4.3 units so far and 3-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 7-3.
The Sooners have gained 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and have an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Horned Frogs have gone 5-5 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against Big 12 opponents. The Sooners are 9-1 SU overall and are also 6-1 SU in conference play.
These two teams faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 52-27 victory for Oklahoma.
The Horned Frogs are coming off a 33-31 victory over Texas Tech last week. Max Duggan completed 25-of-42 passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns. Darius Anderson (87 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and the signal-caller Duggan (75 yards on 18 carries, one TD) mounted the running attack. Taye Barber (eight receptions, 137 yards) and Anderson (three catches, seven yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
The Oklahoma Sooners take the field on Saturday after just earning a 34-31 win over Baylor. The defensive unit allowed the Bears to run for 113 yards on 23 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Denzel Mims was a bright spot in the defeat for Baylor, recording 92 yards and two touchdowns on six catches. For Oklahoma, Jalen Hurts completed 30-of-42 passes for 297 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Hurts (114 yards on 27 rush attempts) and Kennedy Brooks (93 yards on 18 carries) handled the running game while Lee Morris (seven receptions, 86 yards) and Charleston Rambo (five catches, 50 yards) led the Oklahoma pass-catchers in the win.
Each of these teams sports a remarkably similar (57-43) run-pass ratio on the season. The Horned Frogs have rushed for 215.6 yards per game (including 196.3 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 20 scores on the ground this year. The Sooners are putting up 247.1 rushing yards per game (214 in conference) and have 28 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Sooners should have an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has given up just 14 sacks while the D-line has registered 26 sacks. The Horned Frogs offensive line has given up 26 sacks and their defense has generated only 19 sacks.
The Horned Frogs offensive scheme has logged 223.5 yards/game through the air overall (241.1 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing scores so far. The Sooners have put up 334 pass yards per contest (326 in the Big 12) and have 31 total pass TDs.
TCU has allowed opponents to run for an average of 119.5 yards and pass for 209.3 yards per game. The Oklahoma D has allowed 207.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 142.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Horned Frogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.60 to opponents, while the Sooners have allowed a 6.11 ANY/A.
Offensively, Duggan is up to 1,728 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 145-of-250 attempts with 14 passing scores and only four interceptions. He has a 6.40 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.31 over the last two outings.
We’re expecting the Horned Frogs to control tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Taye Barber (328 yards), Sewo Olonilua (409 rush yards, five rush TDs, 81 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Darius Anderson (754 rush yards, six rush TDs) have delivered in the offensive game scripts for TCU.
For the home team, Jalen Hurts has managed to complete 163-of-222 passes for 2,766 yards, 25 TDs and four INTs. Hurts’ ANY/A sits at 12.91 for the year and 7.69 over his past two outings.
The Sooners also like to keep their RBs featured. In addition to Kennedy Brooks (49 receiving yards), Jalen Hurts (915 rush yards, 13 rush TDs) and CeeDee Lamb (-11 rush yards, one rush TD, 983 receiving yards, 13 TDs) have seen a multitude of touches lately.
TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma Sooners Free Prediction
SU Winner: Oklahoma, ATS Winner: Oklahoma, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Oklahoma offense has lost seven fumbles this season while TCU has let nine get away.
- The Oklahoma D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 26 times this season. TCU has recorded just 19 sacks.
- As a team, TCU has produced 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.9 over its last two.
- Oklahoma has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its past two.
- In its last three contests, Oklahoma is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for TCU’s previous game was 53.5. The over cashed in the team’s 33-31 victory over Texas Tech.
- Over its last three contests, TCU is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Oklahoma’s previous match was set at 68.5. The under cashed in the 34-31 win over Baylor.
