The San Diego State Aztecs (+3) are heading east to battle their in-conference nemesis Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on FCBK and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: San Diego State Aztecs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
San Diego State is the road underdog in this MWC matchup and is currently receiving 3 points. The Aztecs are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Rainbow Warriors are -155. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points. There might be some good live betting possibilities while the matchup is taking place.
Sharp bettors have been leaning toward the Rainbow Warriors. The line initially opened at -1 while the total was originally set at 51.5.
The Aztecs are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 6.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-9.
The Rainbow Warriors are up 5.8 units this season. The team is 5-6 ATS and seven of its games have gone over the total.
The Aztecs are 8-2 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against MWC opponents. The Rainbow Warriors are 7-4 SU overall and 4-3 SU in conference play.
The Aztecs enter after a 17-7 victory over Fresno State last week. The D did its part in the win, holding the Bulldogs to just 136 passing yards and 70 rushing yards. Ronnie Rivers had a productive day for the Bulldogs in that one with 47 rushing yards and a score on 15 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Ryan Agnew completed 33 passes on 47 attempts for 323 yards, along with a score and a pick. Chase Jasmin (just 31 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) and Chance Bell (52 yards on 14 carries) provided the ground attack in the win while Jesse Matthews (eight receptions, 119 yards) and Jasmin (six catches, 40 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
Hawaii just picked up a 21-7 win over UNLV. The defensive unit let the Rebels run for 117 yards on 27 rush attempts. Chad Magyar had a productive showing in the defeat for UNLV, accounting for 65 rushing yards on nine attempts. As a group, the Rainbow Warriors collectively completed 24-of-35 passes for 257 yards and two interceptions. Cole McDonald went 20-for-26 for 211 yards while Chevan Cordeiro was four-of-nine for 46 yards and two interceptions. Miles Reed (90 yards on 22 rush attempts) and the signal-caller McDonald (43 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) led the ground game in the win while Jared Smart (nine receptions, 106 yards) and Cedric Byrd II (five catches, 60 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
San Diego State’s run the ball on 58.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Hawaii has a rush percentage of 40.1 percent. The Aztecs have produced 141.8 rush yards per game (including 132.4 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have nine touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Rainbow Warriors are logging 151.2 rushing yards per game (169 in conference) and have 17 total rush TDs.
The Aztecs offense has logged 194.6 yards/contest in the air overall (204.1 per game versus conference opposition) and has 11 passing TDs so far. The Rainbow Warriors have produced a ridiculous 340.7 pass yards per contest (334 against MWC foes) and have 32 total pass scores.
Defensively, San Diego State should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 65.8 yards and pass for 204.2 yards per game. The Hawaii defense has allowed 234.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 197.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.40 to opposing QBs, while the Rainbow Warriors have given up a 6.79 ANY/A.
Offensively, Agnew has put up 1,750 passing yards this season, and has completed 173-of-266 attempts with 11 scores through the air and four interceptions. Agnew has a 5.86 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.02 over the last two outings.
We’re expecting the Aztecs to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to receiver Jesse Matthews (380 receiving yards), Chance Bell (319 rush yards, one rush TD, 72 receiving yards) and Chase Jasmin (200 rush yards, three rush TDs, 66 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been big focal points in the San Diego State offensive scheme.
Chevan Cordeiro has connected on 30-of-60 passes for 418 yards, three TDs and three INTs for Hawaii. His ANY/A sits at 4.85 for the year and 8.13 across his past two outings.
The Rainbow Warriors also like to keep their RBs featured. In addition to JoJo Ward (710 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs), Miles Reed (535 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Jared Smart (669 receiving yards and one TD) have gotten a multitude of touches recently.
When these two schools met last year, Hawaii earned the win 31-30.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Pick
SU Winner: San Diego State, ATS Winner: San Diego State, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Aztecs offense has created three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Rainbow Warriors have put up 13 such plays.
- The San Diego State defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Hawaii has given up nine such plays.
- The San Diego State offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Hawaii has created 12 such runs.
- The Aztecs defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rainbow Warriors have given up 23 such runs.
- The San Diego State defense has 23 sacks on the year while Hawaii has just 13.
- As a team, San Diego State has produced 3.2 yards per carry across its past three games and 2.8 over its last two.
- Hawaii has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.2 over its past two.
- In its last three matches, Hawaii is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for San Diego State’s previous game was 43.5. The under cashed in the team’s 17-7 victory over Fresno State.
- Over its last three matchups, San Diego State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Hawaii’s last outing was set at 71. The under cashed in that 21-7 triumph over UNLV.
- San Diego State has won six of its last seven games SU, with a four-point defeat to Nevada on November 9th representing the only loss over that stretch.
