A matchup between two teams that are nationally ranked in the Top 10, the No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (+18) are set to take on their Big 10 foe No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-18) at Ohio Stadium. FOX owns the TV rights and the game is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
This Saturday Big 10 pairing showcases the Nittany Lions as a big dogs and they’re currently receiving 18 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to lay down $1,500 to win $100 back on the Buckeyes (-1500). The Nittany Lions are getting +810 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 57 points. On the surface it looks like there should be some good live betting scenarios in this matchup.
The game’s total has moved up after opening at 55. The original line (-18) hasn’t changed.
Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Nittany Lions have gained 3.6 units and the Buckeyes are up 5.0 units.
The perfect Nittany Lions are 9-1 straight up (SU), including 6-1 SU against conference opponents. The Buckeyes are 10-0 SU overall and are also 7-0 SU in conference play.
The Nittany Lions are coming off a 34-27 win over Indiana last week. The passing game was messy as Sean Clifford completed just 11 passes on 23 attempts for 179 yards and one touchdown. Journey Brown (100 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Clifford (55 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) led the ground attack in the win. Pat Freiermuth (two receptions, 32 yards) and KJ Hamler (two catches, 52 yards) shared the receiving duties.
The Ohio State Buckeyes just earned a lopsided 56-21 win over Rutgers. The defensive unit let the Scarlet Knights rush for 110 yards on 40 attempts, including two rush TDs. Isaih Pacheco was a bright spot in the loss, posting 56 rushing yards and a score on 17 attempts for Rutgers. As a group, the Buckeyes collectively completed 21-of-34 passes for 377 yards and six touchdowns. Justin Fields went 15-for-19 for 305 yards and four touchdowns while Chris Chugunov was five-of-14 for 61 yards and two touchdowns. J.K. Dobbins (89 yards on 17 rush attempts, two TDs) and Master Teague III (45 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Binjimen Victor (five receptions, 68 yards, two TDs) and Chris Olave (four catches, 139 yards) led the receiving attack.
Penn State has run the ball on 55.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ohio State has an overall rush percentage of 62.6 percent. The Nittany Lions have produced 173.1 rush yards/game (including 165 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 24 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Buckeyes are totaling 287.4 rushing yards per game (305.7 in conference) and have 31 total rush TDs.
The Nittany Lions offense has averaged 253.5 yards in the air overall (241.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 23 passing scores so far. The Buckeyes have put up 254.3 pass yards per game (243 against Big 10 foes) and have 38 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Penn State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 75.9 yards and pass for 240.3 yards per game. The Ohio State defense has allowed 126 yards per game to opposing passers and 90.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Buckeyes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 1.77 to opposing QBs, while the Nittany Lions have given up a 5.12 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Clifford is up to 2,110 yards on the year. He’s connected on 61 percent of his 239 attempts with 21 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Clifford has an 8.98 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.56 over the past two games.
We expect the Penn State offense to mix it up in this one. Journey Brown (397 rushing yards, four rush TDs, 113 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), KJ Hamler (672 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs) and Pat Freiermuth (323 receiving yards, seven TDs) have all played big roles lately.
On the other sideline, Justin Fields has connected on 143-of-205 passes for 1,964 yards, 28 TDs and one INT. Fields’ ANY/A sits at 10.64 for the season and 14.66 over his last two outings.
We’re expecting the Buckeyes to control the game’s pace by feeding the running backs early and often. Along with WR Chris Olave (550 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs this season), J.K. Dobbins (1,199 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and Master Teague III (633 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been significant factors in the Ohio State offense.
When these two schools faced one another last year, Ohio State earned the win 27-26.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Free Pick
SU Winner: Ohio State, ATS Winner: Penn State, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Nittany Lions offense has produced 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have put up five such plays.
- The Penn State defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Ohio State has given up four such plays.
- The Penn State offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Ohio State has created 29 such runs.
- The Nittany Lions defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have given up nine such runs.
- The Ohio State defensive unit has produced 42 sacks on the year while Penn State has just 33.
- As a team, Penn State has produced 4.4 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.0 over its last two.
- Ohio State has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.0 over its last two.
- Over its last three matches, Ohio State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Penn State’s previous game was set at 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 34-27 win over Indiana.
- In its last three matchups, Penn State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Ohio State’s last game was set at 63. The over cashed in that 56-21 win over Rutgers.
