The No. 2 LSU Tigers (-19) are set to take on their SEC rival Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. This key afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers
Mississippi State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 19 points in this Saturday SEC game. In order to take the favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to put down $1,600 to win $100 back on the Tigers (-1600). The Bulldogs are getting +850 moneyline odds. If one squad can create a bunch of points early it would create a nice in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 61.5 points.
Square bettors have been hammering the Tigers. The line opened at 18 and the game’s O/U has yet to move after it was initially set at 61.5.
The Tigers are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.0 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-1.
The lackluster Bulldogs have lost 3.5 units so far. The team is 2-4 ATS and four of its games have gone over the total.
The Tigers are 6-0 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 3-3 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Tigers are hoping to remain unbeaten following a 42-28 victory over Florida last week where Joe Burrow completed 21 passes on 24 attempts for 293 yards and three touchdowns. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (134 yards on 13 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground attack in the win. Justin Jefferson (10 receptions, 123 yards, one TD) and Ja’Marr Chase (seven catches, 127 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties.
Mississippi State most-recently fell 20-10 to Tennessee. The defensive unit allowed the Volunteers to eat up the clock by rushing for 190 yards on 44 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Tim Jordan had a productive showing for Tennessee, recording 59 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. As a group, the Bulldogs collectively completed 11-of-21 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Tommy Stevens went six-for-11 for 67 yards and two interceptions while Garrett Shrader was five-of-10 for 79 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Garrett Shrader (62 yards on 13 rush attempts) and Kylin Hill (13 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Osirus Mitchell (five receptions, 58 yards) and Stephen Guidry (two catches, 36 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
LSU has run the ball on 49.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Mississippi State has a rush percentage of 62 percent. The Tigers have run for 165.5 yards per game (including 199.5 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 15 scores via handoffs this year. The Bulldogs are putting up 192 rushing yards per game (160 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Tigers ought to hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection, since their offensive line has given up just 35 sacks while the D-line registered 34 sacks. The Bulldogs offensive line has allowed 25 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 39 occasions.
The Tigers offensive scheme has logged a superb 395.5 yards per game through the air overall (355.5 per game versus conference opposition) and has 25 passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have put up 184.2 pass yards per game (181 against SEC competition) and have eight total pass TDs.
LSU has allowed opponents to run for an average of 91.8 yards and pass for 224.2 yards per game. The Mississippi State defense has allowed 230.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 163.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tigers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.24 to opponents, while the Bulldogs have given up a 6.87 ANY/A.
Offensively, Burrow is already up to 1,813 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 121-of-148 attempts with 20 scores through the air and only two interceptions. He has a pristine 13.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 11.61 over the past two games.
In the other locker room, Garrett Shrader has completed 33-of-55 passes for 381 yards, one TD and two INTs. Shrader’s ANY/A sits at a less-than-spectacular 4.34 for the year and 7.18 over his last two outings.
When these two squads met a year ago, LSU got the victory over Mississippi State, 19-3.
LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: LSU, ATS Winner: LSU, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The LSU defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this season. Mississippi State has registered 10 sacks.
- The Mississippi State offense has lost six fumbles this season while the LSU offense has lost two.
- The Tigers offense has produced nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have accounted for one such play.
- The LSU defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Mississippi State has given up three such plays.
- Both defenses have produced nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The LSU offense has recorded 25 running plays of 10+ yards while Mississippi State has accounted for 51 such plays.
- The Tigers defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulldogs have given up seven such runs.
- The Over/Under for Mississippi State’s previous game was set at 53. The under cashed in the 20-10 loss to Tennessee.
- In its last three contests, Mississippi State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three games, LSU is 2-0-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Mississippi State has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 15-point win over Kentucky on September 21st accounting for the lone victory over that span.
- The O/U for LSU’s last game was 55. The over cashed in the team’s 42-28 victory over Florida.
- LSU, as a team, has produced 5.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.2 over its last two.
- Mississippi State has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its past two.
