The Duke Blue Devils (+4) aren’t traveling far to take on their in-conference counterpart North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Memorial Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CHSS.
Betting Preview: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
Duke is the road underdog in this ACC game and is currently receiving 4 points. The Blue Devils are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Tar Heels are -175. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points. There will likely be some good in-game betting opportunities in this match.
The line opened at -4. The game’s total has not changed after being set initially at 56.5.
The Blue Devils are 3-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 0.5 units so far. The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 6-1.
The Tar Heels are up 1.8 units this season. The team is 4-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-3.
The Blue Devils are 4-3 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against ACC opponents. The Tar Heels are 3-4 SU overall and 2-3 SU in conference play.
The Blue Devils fell to Virginia 48-14 in a blowout where the passing attack could’ve been sharper as Quentin Harris completed just 13 passes on 26 attempts for 88 yards, one score and two interceptions. Deon Jackson (35 yards on 12 rush attempts) led the ground attack. Jalon Calhoun (four receptions, three yards) and Noah Gray (three catches, 12 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
A week ago, Virginia Tech knocked off this North Carolina team by a score of 43-41. Sam Howell completed 26-of-49 passes for 348 yards and five touchdowns. Michael Carter (91 yards on 13 rush attempts) and Javonte Williams (37 yards on 11 carries) handled the running game while Dazz Newsome (nine receptions, 112 yards, two TDs) and Beau Corrales (five catches, 48 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Duke’s run the ball on 58.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while North Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 53.6 percent. The Blue Devils have produced 175.6 rush yards per game (including 171.5 per game versus Atlantic Coast opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Heels are logging 160.7 rush yards per game (148.2 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.
If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it appears the Blue Devils should hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has generated 4.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Tar Heels have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.
The Blue Devils offense has averaged 192.1 yards in the air overall (161.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Heels have put up 273.9 pass yards per game (270 in the ACC) and have 20 total pass scores.
Duke has allowed opponents to run for an average of 136.6 yards and pass for 203.7 yards per game. The North Carolina defense has allowed 214.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 174.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Blue Devils are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.47 to opposing QBs, while the Heels have given up a 6.19 ANY/A.
Howell probably has the edge over Harris in this one. The Tar Heels man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 7.47 for the year and 7.80 over his last two outings while Harris’ ANY/A is 5.32 (and 3.63 over the past two outings).
When these two teams met last year, Duke won by a touchdown 42-35.
Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels Free Prediction
SU Winner: Duke, ATS Winner: Duke, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Duke defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 19 times this year. North Carolina has produced 16 sacks.
- North Carolina has lost three fumbles this season while Duke has let eight get away.
- The Blue Devils offense has registered three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tar Heels have accounted for seven such plays.
- The Duke defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while North Carolina has given up four such plays.
- The Duke offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while North Carolina has created 15 such runs.
- The Blue Devils defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tar Heels have given up 12 such runs.
- The Over/Under for North Carolina’s last game was set at 57. The over cashed in that 43-41 defeat to Virginia Tech.
- Over its last three games, North Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matches, Duke is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for Duke’s last game going into it was 44. The over cashed in the team’s 48-14 loss to Virginia.
- Duke has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its past three games and 3.4 over its last two.
- North Carolina has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its past two.
