The Air Force Falcons (-10) aren’t traveling far to battle their conference foe Colorado State Rams at Canvas Stadium. The matchup is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Colorado State Rams vs. Air Force Falcons
In this Saturday Mountain West game, Air Force is tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 10 points. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently have to lay down $400 in order to net $100 back on the Falcons (-400). The Rams are getting +300 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 60. With the spread standing at Colorado State +10, oddsmakers think that this has the look of a 25-35 victory for the Falcons. If one side can catch a lucky break early, it’ll likely result in a nice in-game betting opportunity.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Falcons have gained 3.8 units and the Rams are up 3.3 units.
The Falcons are 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against conference opponents. The Rams are 4-5 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.
The Falcons continue to be on a roll after a 17-13 win over Army West Point on November 2. Donald Hammond III completed only one-of-6 passes for 19 yards and one interception. Kadin Remsberg (54 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and Joshua Stoner (59 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the running attack in the win while Geraud Sanders (one receptions, 19 yards) and Remsberg (one catch, -3 yards) handled the receiving duties.
The Colorado State Rams are coming off of a 37-17 win over UNLV. The team’s defense let the Rebels run for 107 yards on 31 rush attempts. Randal Grimes was a bright spot in the defeat for UNLV, accounting for 92 yards on seven catches. For Colorado State, Patrick O’Brien completed 17-of-27 passes for 234 yards. Christian Hunter (79 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) handled the ground game in the win as Warren Jackson (six receptions, 133 yards) and Dante Wright (four catches, 26 yards) led the receiving attack.
Air Force has run the ball on 86.2 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 89.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Colorado State has an overall rush percentage of 48.5 percent, and has run the ball 50.9 percent of the time against MWC opponents. The Falcons have run for 323.1 yards/game (including 353 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 33 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Rams are putting up 156.6 rushing yards per game (116 in conference) and have 17 total rush TDs.
If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Falcons may have the advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness, as their running backs has produced 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.4 to opponents. The Rams have ran for 4.5 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.1 to opponents.
The Falcons offensive scheme has averaged 108.4 yards through the air overall (103.6 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Rams have produced 312.2 pass yards per contest (286 against MWC foes) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, Air Force has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 96.8 yards and throw for 216.6 yards per game. The Colorado State defense has allowed 191 yards per game to opposing passers and 204.4 yards per game on the ground. The Rams are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.91 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up a 7.30 ANY/A.
O’Brien has completed 115-of-184 passes for 1,628 yards, six TDs and two INTs. O’Brien’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.11 for the year and 7.84 over his past two games. In the other locker room, Hammond III is up to 696 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 32-of-67 attempts with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Hammond III has an 8.60 ANY/A for the year, although that number is -1.50 over the past two outings.
These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 27-19 win for Air Force.
Air Force Falcons vs. Colorado State Rams NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Colorado State, ATS Winner: Colorado State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Air Force’s last game was set at 45. The under cashed in the team’s 17-13 triumph over Army West Point.
- Air Force has produced 6.1 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.8 over its last two.
- Colorado State has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.7 over its last two.
- The Colorado State offense has lost 12 fumbles this season while Air Force has let nine get away.
- Over its last three games, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Colorado State’s previous outing was 63.5. The under cashed in the team’s 37-17 victory over UNLV.
- In its last three games, Colorado State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Falcons offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Rams have put up 15 such plays.
- The Air Force defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Colorado State has given up four such plays.
- The Air Force offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Colorado State has created 15 such runs.
- The Falcons defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rams have given up 18 such runs.
- The Colorado State defensive unit has created 22 sacks on the year while Air Force has just 14.
