Two schools that prefer to run the football, Coach Kirby Smart and the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (-26) are set to face their SEC rival Vanderbilt Commodores at Sanford Stadium. The matchup kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET and SEC Network is scheduled to broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia has been tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 26 points to Vanderbilt. This SEC game is a toss-up, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 52 points.
The Commodores are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.0 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 1-4.
The Bulldogs are up 2.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-2-1 ATS and have an even O/U record of 2-2.
The Commodores are 3-2 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 5-0 SU overall and 3-0 SU in conference play.
The Commodores are coming off a 31-27 victory over Tennessee State last week where Kyle Shurmur completed 22-of-29 passes for 297 yards, three scores and two interceptions. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (146 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) and Khari Blasingame (88 yards on 10 carries) propelled the running attack while Kalija Lipscomb (nine receptions, 174 yards, two TDs) and C.J. Bolar (seven catches, 71 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Georgia just earned a 38-12 win over Tennessee. The Dawgs defensive unit held its ground in the victory, holding the Volunteers to only 143 passing yards and 66 yards on the ground. Ty Chandler had a good outing in the defeat for Tennessee, accounting for 27 rushing yards on five attempts, along with 53 yards and a score on four catches. For Georgia, Jake Fromm completed 16-of-22 passes for 185 yards. Elijah Holyfield (78 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and D’Andre Swift (50 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) handled the running game as Mecole Hardman (four receptions, 43 yards) and Riley Ridley (four catches, 36 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Vanderbilt has run the ball on 51.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia has a rush percentage of 64.8 percent. The Commodores have produced 163.2 rush yards/game and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Dawgs are logging 250.4 rushing yards per game (235.7 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Dawgs may own an edge in all aspects of the ground game, as their backfield has logged 6.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents. The Commodores have ran for 4.8 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents.
The Commodores offensive scheme has averaged 251.0 yards in the air overall and has nine passing scores so far. The Dawgs have produced 219.8 pass yards per contest (217 in the SEC) and have 11 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Vanderbilt has allowed 154.4 rush yards and 211.8 pass yards per game. The Georgia defense has allowed 167.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 108.2 yards per game on the ground. The Dawgs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.23 to opponents, while the Commodores have allowed a 5.62 ANY/A.
Fromm probably has the advantage over Shurmur in this one. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 9.32 for the year and 9.27 over his last two outings while Shurmur’s ANY/A is 8.57 (and 5.86 over the past two games).
When these two squads met last year, Georgia knocked off Vanderbilt soundly 45-14.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia Bulldogs NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Georgia, ATS Winner: Vanderbilt, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Vanderbilt D has twice as many sacks as Georgia this year (10 to five).
- The Georgia offense has lost one fumble this season while Vanderbilt has lost five.
- The Commodores offense has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have put up six such plays.
- The Vanderbilt defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Georgia has given up two such plays.
- The Vanderbilt offense has created six rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Georgia has created nine such run.
- The Commodores defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have given up one such run.
- Georgia was favored by 31 points in its last matchup and the O/U was 54. The under cashed and Georgia did not cover in that 38-12 win over Tennessee.
- In its last three matches, Georgia is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three contests, Vanderbilt is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Vanderbilt was favored by 29 points in its last game and the O/U was 51.5. The over cashed and Vanderbilt did not cover in the 31-27 victory over Tennessee State.
- Vanderbilt has averaged 4.70212765957447 yards per carry over its past three outings and 5.2 over its last two.
- Georgia has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
