The No. 10 UCF Knights (+21) are heading north to face their conference nemesis East Carolina Pirates at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. The opening kickoff for this matchup is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN2.
Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates vs. UCF Knights
UCF is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 21 points to East Carolina. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 64.5 points, and if one program can find paydirt early, it’ll likely result in a nice live betting opportunity.
The game’s over/under was initially placed at 65.5, but the sharp action has been pushing that number lower.
The surprising Knights have gained 3.0 units so far in 2018 and are 4-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-4.
The Pirates have lost 2.0 units this season. The team is 2-4 ATS and has an even O/U record of 3-3.
The Knights have gone 6-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against conference opponents. The Pirates are 2-4 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
The Knights are hoping to remain unbeaten after a 31-30 victory over Memphis last week. McKenzie Milton completed 17 passes for 296 yards and one touchdown. Gabriel Davis (six receptions, 128 yards, one TD) and Marlon Williams (four catches, 56 yards) shared the receiving duties.
One week ago, Houston knocked off this East Carolina crew by a score of 42-20. The Pirates defense allowed the Cougars to eat up the clock by running for 157 yards on 43 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Courtney Lark had a solid showing in the win for Houston, recording 79 yards and a score on three catches. As a group, the Pirates collectively completed 38-of-63 passes for 374 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Reid Herring went 26-for-42 for 229 yards and two interceptions while Holton Ahlers was 11-of-18 for 137 yards and one touchdown. Darius Pinnix (15 rushing yards on 11 attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Trevon Brown (13 receptions, 153 yards, one TD) and Tahj Deans (six catches, 40 yards) led the receiving corps.
UCF’s run the ball on 55.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while East Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 42.7 percent. The Knights have run for 252.0 yards/game (including 239.0 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 20 scores via handoffs this year. The Pirates are logging 123.3 rush yards per game (91.0 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.
The Knights offensive scheme has tallied 303.5 yards/game in the air overall (312.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Pirates have produced 277.8 pass yards per game (250 against AAC competition) and have seven total pass TDs.
UCF should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 198.3 yards and pass for 180.3 yards per game. The East Carolina defense has given up 233.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 118.2 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.97 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates have given up a 6.87 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Milton is up to 1,519 yards this season. He’s completed 61 percent of his 166 attempts with 14 passing scores and only three interceptions. He has a pristine 9.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.36 over the last two outings.
Reid Herring has managed to complete 127-of-229 passes for 1,390 yards, six TDs and seven INTs for East Carolina. His ANY/A sits at a mediocre 4.95 for the year and 2.75 over his last two games.
When these two programs faced one another a year ago, UCF knocked off East Carolina by six touchdowns 63-21.
UCF Knights at East Carolina Pirates NCAA Pick
SU Winner: East Carolina, ATS Winner: East Carolina, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The O/U for UCF’s last game was set at 80. The under cashed in the team’s 31-30 victory over Memphis.
- UCF, as a team, has averaged 5.3 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.3 over its last two.
- East Carolina has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and only 2.0 over its past two.
- East Carolina has lost two fumbles this season while UCF has let one get away.
- In its last three contests, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The O/U for East Carolina’s last matchup was set at 69. The under cashed in the 42-20 defeat to Houston.
- In its last three matchups, East Carolina is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- East Carolina has dropped four of its last five games SU, with a two-point triumph over Old Dominion on September 29th representing the lone win over that stretch.
- The Knights offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Pirates have accounted for two such plays.
- The UCF defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while East Carolina has given up four such plays.
- The UCF offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while East Carolina has created seven such runs.
- The Knights defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Pirates have given up nine such runs.
- The East Carolina D has produced more than twice as many sacks as UCF this year (21 to 10).
