A couple of schools that like to focus on their running games, Head Coach Rick Stockstill and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-15) are gearing up to take the field against their conference counterpart Old Dominion Monarchs at Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium. ESPN 3 will broadcast the action and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Old Dominion Monarchs
Old Dominion is a live dog and is currently getting 15 points in this Saturday CUSA matchup. The Monarchs are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Blue Raiders are -750. This CUSA tilt should provide several decent in-game betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 47 points.
Early action has moved in favor of the Blue Raiders. The line opened at -13, while the game’s O/U hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 47.
The Monarchs are 4-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 8.1 units so far in 2019. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 3-7.
The Blue Raiders have lost 8.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and own an O/U record of 7-3.
The Monarchs have gone 1-9 straight up (SU), including 0-6 SU against CUSA opponents. The Blue Raiders are 3-7 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play.
The Monarchs fell to UTSA 24-23 in a game where Hayden Wolff completed 17 passes for 247 yards, along with a TD and an interception. Lala Davis (55 yards on 12 rush attempts) led the running attack while Aaron Moore (three receptions, 80 yards, one TD) and Strong (three catches, 26 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Rice got the win against this Middle Tennessee team by a score of 31-28. Asher O’Hara completed 22-of-31 passes for 338 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. O’Hara (79 yards on 19 rush attempts, two TDs) handled the running game as Ty Lee (seven receptions, 154 yards, one TD) and Jimmy Marshall (seven catches, 112 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Old Dominion has run the ball on 57 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 54.4 percent across possessions in conference play. Middle Tennessee has an overall rush percentage of 51.4 percent, and has kept it on the ground 54 percent of the time against CUSA opponents. The Monarchs have rushed for 88.3 yards/game (including 65.5 per game versus Conference USA opponents) and have 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Blue Raiders are totaling 177.3 rushing yards per game (208.5 in conference) and have 17 total rush TDs.
The Monarchs offense has averaged 162.3 yards through the air overall (155.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has four passing TDs so far. The Blue Raiders have put up 227 pass yards per outing (222 against CUSA foes) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, Old Dominion should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 138.3 rush yards and 227.2 pass yards per game. The Middle Tennessee defense has given up 256.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 204.6 yards per game to opposing runners. The Monarchs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.96 to opponents, while the Blue Raiders have given up a 7.9 ANY/A.
Offensively, Wolff is up to 247 passing yards on the year, and has completed 17-of-29 attempts with one scores through the air and one interception. Wolff has a 6.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.53 over the last two games.
We’re looking for Monarchs to control tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Along with Aaron Moore (143 yards, two TDs), Lala Davis (254 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Kesean Strong (292 rush yards, three rush TDs, 159 receiving yards) have been big focal points in the offensive game scripts for Old Dominion.
Asher O’Hara has completed 163-of-258 passes for 1,990 yards, 13 TDs and six INTs for Middle Tennessee. His ANY/A stands at 6.84 for the year and 9.06 across his past two games.
The Blue Raiders will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Asher O’Hara (-5 receiving yards), Ty Lee (three rush yards, 410 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Jimmy Marshall (373 receiving yards and three TDs) have seen plenty of action recently.
When these two teams faced each other a year ago, Middle Tennessee won easily 51-17.
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Middle Tennessee, ATS Winner: Middle Tennessee, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Monarchs offense has produced six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Blue Raiders have accounted for five such plays.
- The Old Dominion defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Middle Tennessee has given up four such plays.
- The Old Dominion offense has created eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Middle Tennessee has created 16 such runs.
- The Monarchs defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Blue Raiders have given up 15 such runs.
- The Old Dominion D has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this season. Middle Tennessee has recorded just nine sacks.
- Old Dominion, as a team, has produced 2.2 yards per carry across its past three contests and 2.6 over its last two.
- Middle Tennessee has averaged 7.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.6 over its past two.
- Over its last three games, Middle Tennessee is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Old Dominion’s last game was set at 42.5. The over cashed in the team’s 24-23 loss to UTSA.
- Over its last three games, Old Dominion is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Middle Tennessee’s last game was set at 47. The over cashed in the 31-28 defeat to Rice.
- Middle Tennessee has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 33-point victory over FIU on October 26th representing the only win over that span.
