Two schools that like to keep the ball on the ground, Coach Charlie Strong and the South Florida Bulls (+14) will be facing off against their conference counterpart Navy Midshipmen (-14) at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. This key afternoon game is scheduled to begin at 3:30 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will televise the action.
Betting Preview: South Florida Bulls at Navy Midshipmen
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, Navy is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to put down $600 to win $100 back on the Midshipmen (-600). The Bulls are getting +425 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 53.5 points. It looks like there should be some solid live betting opportunities in this showdown.
This game’s O/U hasn’t moved after being initially set at 53.5. Having said that, the opening line was -13 and early action has shifted in favor of the Midshipmen.
The Bulls are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 0.3 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 4-2.
The Midshipmen are up 2.4 units this season. The team is 4-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2.
The Bulls are 3-3 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against AAC opponents. The Midshipmen are 4-1 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.
Both teams come into this contest on two-game winning streaks. The Bulls got their second W in as many tries after a 27-23 win over BYU last week where Jordan McCloud completed only seven passes on 14 attempts for 72 yards, along with a score and a pick. Jordan Cronkrite (158 rushing yards on 26 attempts, two TDs) and Trevon Sands (63 yards on 10 carries) provided the ground attack in the win while Mitchell Wilcox (two receptions, 52 yards, one TD) and Bryce Miller (one catch, five yards) handled the receiving duties.
Navy just picked up a 45-17 win over Tulsa. The defensive secondary allowed the Golden Hurricane to air it out for 254 yards. JuanCarlos Santana was a bright spot in the loss for Tulsa, recording 98 yards and a score on nine catches. As a group, the Midshipmen collectively completed three-of-five passes for 35 yards. Malcolm Perry went two-for-four for nine yards while CJ Williams was one-of-one for 26 yards. Perry (218 rushing yards on 20 attempts, three TDs) mounted the ground game in the win while OJ Davis (one receptions, 9 yards) and Mychal Cooper (one catch, zero yards) led all Navy pass-catchers.
South Florida has run the ball on 55.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Navy has an overall rush percentage of 87.6 percent. The Bulls have produced 157.8 rush yards/game (including 183.5 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Midshipmen are logging 327.2 rush yards per game (331.3 in conference) and have 22 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Midshipmen may own an edge when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has produced 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 2.8 to opponents. The Bulls have recorded 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 3.8 YPC to opponents.
The Bulls offensive scheme has averaged 181.8 yards through the air overall (239 per game versus conference opposition) and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Midshipmen have recorded 107 pass yards per contest (90 in the AAC) and have three total pass scores.
Defensively, South Florida has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 176.2 yards and pass for 207 yards per game. The Navy defense has given up 200.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 86.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.11 to opponents, while the Midshipmen have given up a 5.82 ANY/A.
Offensively, McCloud has put up 467 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 56 percent of his 68 attempts with five passing scores and three interceptions. He’s got a 4.99 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.95 over the last two outings.
In the other huddle, Malcolm Perry has managed to complete 19-of-30 passes for 345 yards, three TDs and zero INTs. Perry’s ANY/A sits at 11.85 for the season and 13.91 across his past two games.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to face each other in 2018.
South Florida Bulls vs. Navy Midshipmen NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Navy, ATS Winner: Navy, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for South Florida’s previous game going into it was 49. The over cashed in the team’s 27-23 triumph over BYU.
- As a team, South Florida has rushed for 5.1 yards per attempt over its last three outings and 6.5 over its last two.
- Navy has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.6 over its last two.
- The Navy offense has lost seven fumbles this season while South Florida has let four get away.
- In its last three games, South Florida is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Navy’s last matchup going into it was 52.5. The over cashed in the 45-17 win over Tulsa.
- Over its last three matches, Navy is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Bulls offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Midshipmen have put up three such plays.
- The South Florida defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40 or more yards, while Navy has given up five such plays.
- The South Florida offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Navy has created 16 such runs.
- The Bulls defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Midshipmen have given up four such runs.
- The South Florida defense has 19 sacks on the year while Navy has just 12.
