A couple of teams that like to keep the ball on the ground, Head Coach Sonny Dykes and the No. 21 Smu Mustangs (+4) are ready to face off against the Navy Midshipmen (-4) at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. This vital AAC showdown is scheduled to get going at 3:30 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will televise the action.
Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs vs. Navy Midshipmen
SMU is the road underdog in this AAC game and is currently getting 4 points. The Mustangs are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Midshipmen are -175. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 67.5 points. If the underdog gets out in front early, it will likely generate a worthy live betting opportunity.
The line initially opened at -3 and the game’s total was originally 68, so sharp bettors are appearing to prefer the Midshipmen.
Each team has been profitable this year as the Mustangs have recorded 8.5 units and the Midshipmen are up 3.4 units.
The Mustangs have gone 9-1 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against AAC opponents. The Midshipmen are 7-2 SU overall and are also 5-1 SU in conference play.
When these two teams faced each other a year ago, SMU earned the win 31-30.
The Mustangs are coming off a 59-51 victory over East Carolina on November 9. Shane Buechele completed 33 passes on 46 attempts for 414 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Xavier Jones (157 rushing yards on 20 attempts, three TDs) led the running attack while James Proche (14 receptions, 167 yards, two TDs) and Kylen Granson (seven catches, 138 yards, three TDs) handled the receiving duties in the win.
A week ago, Notre Dame knocked off this Navy crew by a score of 52-20. As a group, the Midshipmen collectively completed four-of-13 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown. Malcolm Perry went three-for-seven for 36 yards while Perry Olsen was one-of-five for 43 yards and one touchdown. Perry (117 rushing yards on 25 attempts) and Perry Olsen (17 yards on 10 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Mychal Cooper (three receptions, 73 yards, one TD) and CJ Williams (one catch, six yards) led all Navy pass-catchers in the loss.
SMU’s run the ball on 52.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Navy has an overall rush percentage of 87.7 percent. The Mustangs have rushed for 194.1 yards/game (including 179 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 30 scores on the ground this year. The Midshipmen are logging 349.3 rush yards per game (370.2 in conference) and have 37 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then the Midshipmen might hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has logged 5.9 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 3.2 to opponents. The Mustangs have registered 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Mustangs offensive scheme has logged 328.1 yards per contest in the air overall (348.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 28 passing scores so far. The Midshipmen have put up 96.7 pass yards per contest (88 against AAC competition) and have seven total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, SMU has allowed 124.3 rush yards and 301.5 pass yards per game. The Navy D has allowed 212.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 108.9 yards per game on the ground. The Midshipmen are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.08 to opponents, while the Mustangs have given up a 6.77 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Buechele is already up to 2,739 yards this season, and has connected on 215-of-334 attempts with 25 scores through the air and only eight interceptions. Buechele has an 8.13 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.21 over the last two games.
We expect the SMU offense to mix it up in this one. As a group, James Proche, Kylen Granson and Xavier Jones have combined for 760 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
For the home team, Malcolm Perry has connected on 29-of-54 passes for 593 yards, four TDs and three INTs. Perry’s ANY/A sits at 8.34 for the season and 12.94 across his past two outings.
Look for Perry to distribute the football early and often in this one. Malcolm Perry (zero receiving yards), Mychal Cooper (256 receiving yards, one receiving TD), and Ryan Mitchell (130 receiving yards) have collectively recorded 205 receiving yards and two scores over the last couple of games.
SMU Mustangs vs. Navy Midshipmen Free Pick
SU Winner: Navy, ATS Winner: Navy, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Mustangs offense has recorded 14 pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Midshipmen have accounted for six such plays.
- The SMU defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Navy has given up nine such plays.
- The SMU offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Navy has created 31 such runs.
- The Mustangs defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Midshipmen have given up nine such runs.
- The SMU defense has sacked opposing QBs 42 times this year. Navy has produced just 24 sacks.
- SMU has averaged 5.3 yards per carry across its past three contests and 5.2 over its last two.
- Navy has averaged 6.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.0 over its last two.
- In its last three contests, Navy is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for SMU’s last game was set at 73.5. The over cashed in the team’s 59-51 win over East Carolina.
- Over its last three games, SMU is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Navy’s last matchup was set at 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-20 loss to Notre Dame.
