Two schools that prefer to deploy their running games, Bulldogs of Mississippi State (-3) are gearing up to welcome their SEC foe Ole Miss Rebels to Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. The matchup is scheduled to get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN.
Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Ole Miss is a live dog here and is currently getting 3 points. The Rebels are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -140. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points. On the surface it looks like there should be some solid in-game betting opportunities in this matchup.
The Rebels are down 3.4 units this season and 7-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-6.
The Bulldogs have lost 5.5 units this year. The team is 4-7 ATS and owns an O/U record of 6-5.
The Rebels have gone 4-7 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 5-6 SU overall and are also 2-5 SU in conference play.
The Rebels lost to LSU 58-37 in a blowout where the defense allowed the Tigers to pass for 489 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 225 yards and two scores. Ja’Marr Chase was on a different level for the Tigers in that one with 227 yards and three touchdowns on eight catches. On the offense, the Rebels completed 15-of-27 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown and one interception. John Rhys Plumlee went nine-for-16 for 123 yards and one interception while Matt Corral completed six-of-11 for 89 yards and one touchdown. Plumlee (212 yards on 21 rush attempts, four TDs) also mounted the ground attack in the loss and was complemented by Jerrion Ealy (141 yards on 13 carries). Elijah Moore (nine receptions, 143 yards, one TD) and Tylan Knight (two catches, seven yards) handled the receiving duties.
Mississippi State just picked up a sound 45-7 win over Abilene Christian. The Bulldogs defensive secondary allowed the Wildcats to air it out for 255 yards. Branden Hohenstein had a productive showing in the loss, recording 115 yards on four catches for Abilene Christian. For Mississippi State, Tommy Stevens completed 13-of-27 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns. Kylin Hill (153 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Nick Gibson (53 yards on eight carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win as Deddrick Thomas (three receptions, 28 yards, one TD) and Hill (three catches, 84 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
When looking at offensive play-calling, each of these squads has a remarkably similar (63-37) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Rebels have rushed for 261.5 yards/game (including 278.9 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 27 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bulldogs haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re logging 228.5 rushing yards per game (209.9 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Rebels might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded just 32 sacks while the D-line registered 22 sacks. The Bulldogs offensive line has allowed 25 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 39 occasions.
The Rebels offensive scheme has logged 189.4 yards per game through the air overall (177.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Bulldogs have put up 182.2 pass yards per game (177 against SEC competition) and have 17 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Ole Miss has allowed 132 rush yards and 293.7 pass yards per game. The Mississippi State defense has given up 241 yards per game to opposing passers and 149.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Rebels are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.70 to opponents, while the Bulldogs have given up a 7.36 ANY/A.
Offensively, Plumlee is up to 665 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 50 percent of his 119 attempts with four scores through the air and three interceptions. Plumlee’s got a 4.66 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.12 over the last two outings.
In the other huddle, Tommy Stevens has completed 68-of-114 passes for 852 yards, nine TDs and four INTs. Stevens’ ANY/A sits at 6.29 for the year and 4.58 across his last two games.
When these two squads faced each other a year ago, Mississippi State won soundly 35-3.
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Ole Miss, ATS Winner: Ole Miss, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Ole Miss D has 30 sacks on the year while Mississippi State has just 18.
- The Mississippi State offense has lost 10 fumbles in 2019 while the Ole Miss offense has lost seven.
- The Rebels offense has registered four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulldogs have put up three such plays.
- The Ole Miss defense has allowed 14 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Mississippi State has given up six such plays.
- The Ole Miss offense has created 34 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Mississippi State has created 24 such runs.
- The Rebels defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulldogs have given up 14 such runs.
- The Over/Under for Mississippi State’s last match was 57. The under cashed in that 45-7 victory over Abilene Christian.
- In its last three matchups, Mississippi State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three matches, Ole Miss is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Ole Miss’ previous game was 66.5. The over cashed in the team’s 58-37 defeat to LSU.
- Ole Miss has averaged 6.9 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 8.1 over its last two.
- Mississippi State has averaged 7.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 7.3 over its last two.
