In a battle featuring two schools that like running the football, Wildcats (+13.5) are gearing up to welcome their conference foe No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers (-13.5) to Northwestern. This afternoon game gets underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can catch the action live on ABC.
Betting Preview: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Northwestern is entering this Big 10 game as a big underdog and is currently getting 13.5 points. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently have to put up $600 in order to win $100 back on the Golden Gophers (-600). The Wildcats are getting +425 moneyline odds. If one side can get out in front early it will create a reasonable live betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 40.5 points.
The early action has swayed in favor of the Golden Gophers. The opening line was originally 12 while the O/U was set initially at 41.
The profitable Golden Gophers have gained 7.9 units so far and are 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 6-4.
The hapless Wildcats have lost 5.0 units this season. They’re 3-7 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-7.
The Golden Gophers have gone 9-1 straight up (SU), including 6-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Wildcats are 2-8 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play.
The Golden Gophers dropped one to Iowa 23-19 in a game where the passing game was on point, as Tanner Morgan completed 25-of-36 passes for 368 yards and one touchdown. Rodney Smith (46 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) mounted the running attack. Tyler Johnson (nine receptions, 170 yards, one TD) and Rashod Bateman (six catches, 98 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Northwestern just earned a 45-6 win over Massachusetts. The team’s defense did its part in the victory, holding the Minutemen to just 227 passing yards and 83 rushing yards. Bilal Ally had a good outing in the defeat for Massachusetts, recording 66 rushing yards on 16 attempts. For Northwestern, Aidan Smith completed seven-of-13 passes for 76 yards and two interceptions. Evan Hull (220 yards on 24 rush attempts, four TDs) mounted the running attack as Riley Lees (seven receptions, 76 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Minnesota has run the ball on 65.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Northwestern has an overall rush percentage of 58.9 percent. The Golden Gophers have produced 182 rush yards per game (including 207 per game versus Big Ten opponents) and have 23 scores on the ground this year. The Wildcats are totaling 165.5 rush yards per game (136 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.
The Gophers offensive scheme has tallied 250.7 yards per contest in the air overall (258.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 22 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have put up 125.4 pass yards per game (128 in the Big 10) and have four total pass TDs.
Minnesota appears to have the upper hand in both areas of the defense. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 123.4 yards and pass for 184.4 yards per game. The Northwestern defense has given up 202.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.7 yards per game on the ground. The Gophers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.91 to opponents, while the Wildcats have allowed a 5.91 ANY/A.
Offensively, Morgan has amassed 2,129 passing yards this year, and has completed 66 percent of his 209 attempts with 19 scores through the air and only four interceptions. Morgan has a sparkling 9.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 11.86 over the last two games.
Rashod Bateman (742 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns on the year), Tyler Johnson (796 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs) and Rodney Smith (935 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have each played key roles of late.
In the home locker room, Aidan Smith has connected on 67-of-140 passes for 576 yards, one TD and eight INTs. Smith’s ANY/A stands at a very poor 1.19 for the season and 3.56 over his past two outings.
Evan Hull (230 rushing yards, four rush TDs this season), Kyric McGowan (177 rush yards, one rush TD, 102 receiving yards) and Riley Lees (268 receiving yards) have combined for 534 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns the past two games.
When these two schools met last year, Northwestern emerged victorious by a score of 24-14.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Northwestern Wildcats NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Minnesota, ATS Winner: Minnesota, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- Northwestern has lost nine fumbles this season while Minnesota has lost six.
- The Minnesota D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. Northwestern has recorded 19 sacks.
- Minnesota has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 2.6 over its last two.
- Northwestern has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.0 over its last two.
- In its last three matches, Northwestern is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Minnesota’s last game going into it was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 23-19 defeat to Iowa.
- In its last three games, Minnesota is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Northwestern’s last game was 57.5. The under cashed in the 45-6 victory over Massachusetts.
