The California Golden Bears and No. 23 Stanford Cardinal will go head-to-head on the grass of Stanford Stadium. This Saturday daytime matchup is scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET and Pac-12 Networks has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Stanford Cardinal vs. California Golden Bears
In this Saturday Pac-12 matchup, Stanford has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 3 points. The Golden Bears are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Cardinal are -155. This Pac-12 tilt should provide several decent live betting possibilities, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 42 points.
This matchup’s betting odds have swayed a bit from where they originally opened. The opening line was -3 and the game’s total was set initially at 42.5.
The Golden Bears are 4-6 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 2.6 units this season. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-7.
The Cardinal have lost 1.1 units so far. The team is 3-7 ATS and the over’s hit in six of its games.
The Golden Bears have gone 5-5 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Cardinal are 4-6 SU overall and are also 3-5 SU in conference play.
The Golden Bears are on the rebound after a 41-17 loss to USC last week where their secondary allowed the Trojans to air it out for 406 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. shredded the defense in that one with 180 yards and a score on 11 catches. On the offensive side, the Golden Bears completed 15-of-32 passes for 128 yards and two interceptions. Devon Modster went 11-for-22 for 95 yards and two interceptions while Chase Garbers completed four-of-10 for 33 yards. DeShawn Collins (103 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) led the running attack in the loss. Jordan Duncan (five receptions, 53 yards) and Marcel Dancy (three catches, 19 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Stanford most recently fell 49-22 to Washington State. The defensive unit allowed the Cougars to pass for 520 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 104 yards. Brandon Arconado put up a solid outing in the win for Washington State, recording 148 yards on nine catches. For Stanford, Davis Mills completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Cameron Scarlett (3 yards on four rush attempts) led the ground game in the defeat as Connor Wedington (eight receptions, 119 yards) and Michael Wilson (five catches, 114 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
California has run the ball on 57.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Stanford has a rush percentage of 44.8 percent. The Golden Bears have produced 126.6 rush yards/game (including 117.7 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have 10 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Cardinal are averaging 108.7 rushing yards per game (104.9 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
The Golden Bears offensive scheme has logged 177.4 yards/contest through the air overall (147.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Cardinal have put up 258.3 pass yards per contest (265 in the Pac-12) and have 15 total pass scores.
Defensively, California appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 135.6 yards and pass for 251.8 yards per game. The Stanford defense has allowed 281.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 148.0 yards per game on the ground. The Golden Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.30 to opposing QBs, while the Cardinal have given up a 7.23 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Modster has amassed 475 yards this year, and has completed 46-of-98 attempts with two scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 1.85 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.27 over the past two outings.
We’re looking for Golden Bears to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. Jordan Duncan (288 yards, two TDs) has been a factor in the receiving game lately, but the RB tandem of Christopher Brown Jr. (533 rush yards, four rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and DeShawn Collins (128 rush yards, two rush TDs) have delivered in the offensive scheme for California.
Davis Mills has connected on 104-of-160 passes for 1,394 yards, eight TDs and three INTs for Stanford. His ANY/A stands at 8.22 for the year and 8.87 over his last two games.
The Cardinal also prefer to keep their backfield involved. In addition to Simi Fehoko (352 receiving yards, five receiving TDs), Michael Wilson (479 receiving yards and four receiving TDs) and Connor Wedington (50 rush yards, 490 receiving yards, one TD) have gotten plenty of looks lately.
When these two squads met a year ago, Stanford got the victory 23-13.
California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal NCAA Pick
SU Winner: California, ATS Winner: California, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- Stanford has lost three fumbles this season while California has lost four.
- The California D has 25 sacks on the year while Stanford has 23.
- California, as a team, has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.1 over its last two.
- Stanford has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its last two.
- Over its last three contests, Stanford is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for California’s previous game going into it was 48. The over cashed in the team’s 41-17 loss to USC.
- Over its last three matchups, California is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Stanford’s previous match was 65. The over cashed in that 49-22 defeat to Washington State.
- Stanford has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 10-point victory over Arizona on October 26th accounting for its one win over that span.
