Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

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The St. Louis Cardinals are playing host to their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium. The game gets underway 8:15 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will be televising the action.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati (+100) as the underdog to St. Louis (-110). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -115 or the under for -105. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at -210 for the Reds +1.5 runs and +175 for the Cardinals -1.5.

The Reds are 63-70 SU and have gone 74-58 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 4.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having gained 7.6 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 73-59 SU and 70-62 ATS. The team has gained 3.0 units for moneyline bettors and 5.8 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Cardinals games have a 52-70-10 over/under record in 2019. The Reds have also been a great under bet with a total record of 52-74-6.

The right-handed Trevor Bauer is projected to start for the visiting Reds. Bauer is 10-11 with a 4.34 ERA and 217 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Cardinals this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Cardinals are putting the ball in the right hand of Dakota Hudson (13-6, 3.47 ERA), who’s got 106 strikeouts and 66 walks as well as a 1.48 WHIP. Hudson is 2-0 with seven strikeouts and a 3.71 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati this year.

As a unit, St. Louis’ pitchers have yielded 4.2 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. In 59 divisional games, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 4.27 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.99.

St. Louis’ hitters have put up 4.6 runs per outing, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 7.2 per game over their last five. The team has hit .300/.402/.529 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and shortstop Paul DeJong have paced the Cardinals’ batters this year. Goldschmidt is slashing .258/.333/.466 with 29 home runs, 71 RBIs and 81 runs scored, while DeJong is hitting .247 with 24 homers, 64 RBIs and 85 runs.

For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.77 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.44, along with a K-per-9 of 9.86.

Reds hitters have slashed .250/.319/.431 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Suarez is slashing .260/.340/.538 with 38 home runs, 83 RBIs and 74 runs scored, while Iglesias (.296/.324/.416) is up to nine homers, 49 RBIs and 55 runs scored.

The Reds have lost 2.5 units and are 55-46 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 40 of those games, compared to 57 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Cardinals have netted 4.3 units and are 58-47 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 39 of those games, as opposed to 60 which went under the total.

Reds vs. Cardinals Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Cincinnati has recorded 19 extra-base hits over its last five contests. St. Louis has 20 XBH over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games, including 12 over their last five.
  • The Reds have a team OPS of .750 this season and an OPS of .737 against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals’ OPS sits at .735 overall and .731 against righties.
  • St. Louis has recorded 25.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 27.6 over its last five.