Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Free Pick

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The Cincinnati Reds are heading south to play the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox Sports Ohio will broadcast this NL showdown. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati (-155) as the favorite over Miami (+145). If you think this game’s total will go under 8 runs, Vegas is currently offering -115 odds. Playing the over will return -105 odds. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -110 for picking the Reds -1.5 runs and -110 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Marlins are 64-64 against the spread (ATS), but only 47-82 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 10.6 units for moneyline bettors and 10.0 units ATS. Miami has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, have gone 60-69 SU this year and are 71-57 against the spread. Overall, the club has lost 5.8 units for moneyline bettors, but have gained 5.6 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Marlins games have an over/under record of 59-59-10 in 2019. Cincinnati has been a great under bet with a total record of 49-73-6.

Sonny Gray will get the start for Cincinnati. The right-handed Gray is 9-6 with a 2.92 ERA and 164 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year.

The Marlins are handing the ball to righty Pablo Lopez (5-5, 4.23 ERA), who has 73 strikeouts and 18 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.12. Lopez is 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 7.71 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have a 4.48 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.10 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.

Miami’s offense has produced 3.7 runs per outing, including 5.1 per game over its last 10 games and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .271/.326/.418 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Marlins’ batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .264/.287/.393 with 13 home runs, 67 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .261/.342/.468 with 20 homers, 66 RBIs and 57 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.70 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.53, along with a K-per-9 of 9.83.

The Reds offense has slashed .250/.320/.429 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Shortstop Jose Iglesias and third baseman Eugenio Suarez continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Iglesias is slashing .298/.326/.423 with nine home runs, 49 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Suarez is hitting .254/.335/.521 with 35 homers, 79 RBIs and 69 runs scored.

The Reds have lost 3.1 units and are 53-45 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 38 of those games, as opposed to 56 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 8.6 units and are 45-50 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 41 of those games, compared to 47 which went under the total.

Reds vs. Marlins Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Cincinnati has tallied 13 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Miami has 15 XBH over its last five.
  • The Reds have an OPS of .749 this season and an OPS of .735 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .669 overall and .657 versus righties.
  • Miami has posted 23.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 23.8 over its last five.
  • The Reds have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.