The No. 17 Cincinnati Bearcats (-13.5) are traveling south to take on their in-conference nemesis South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium. The game will start at 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action live on CBS Sports Network.
Betting Preview: South Florida Bulls vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
South Florida is getting picked to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 13.5 points in this Saturday AAC game. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently have to wager $600 in order to win $100 back on the Bearcats (-600). The Bulls are getting +425 moneyline odds. If one team can get out in front early it will create a nice in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points.
The early action has swayed toward the Bearcats, as the line opened at 12.5. The over/under has not moved after it was set initially at 50.5.
The surprising Bearcats are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.5 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-6.
The Bulls are down 1.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-4.
The Bearcats have gone 8-1 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against conference opponents. The Bulls are 4-5 SU overall and 2-3 SU in conference play.
The Bearcats are coming off a resounding 48-3 victory over Connecticut last week in which the Bearcats completed 16-of-28 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns. Desmond Ridder went 13-for-23 for 136 yards and two touchdowns while Ben Bryant completed three-of-five for 64 yards. Michael Warren II (60 yards on 14 rush attempts, two TDs) and Gerrid Doaks (123 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Josiah Deguara (five receptions, 45 yards, two TDs) and Malick Mbodj (four catches, 45 yards) manned the receiving duties.
One game ago, Temple got the victory against this South Florida crew by a score of 17-7. The Bulls defense let the Owls eat up the clock by running for 153 yards on 39 rush attempts. Jager Gardner had a productive showing for Temple, recording 133 rushing yards on 25 attempts. For South Florida, Jordan McCloud completed 23-of-38 passes for 225 yards and one touchdown. McCloud (-5 rushing yards on 18 attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Mitchell Wilcox (five receptions, 55 yards) and Bryce Miller (four catches, 44 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Cincinnati has run the ball on 61.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while South Florida has a rush percentage of 55.6 percent. The Bearcats have run for 202.4 yards/game (including 215.2 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 18 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Bulls are putting up 167.2 rush yards per game (185 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then the Bearcats could hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.8 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Bulls have ran for 4.6 yards per carry and given up 4.2 YPC to opponents.
The Bearcats offense has averaged 203.8 yards through the air overall (189 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing scores so far. The Bulls have recorded 178.7 pass yards per game (199 against AAC foes) and also have 17 total pass TDs.
Cincinnati has allowed opponents to run for an average of 135.8 yards and throw for 227.4 yards per game. The South Florida defense has allowed 183.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 194.0 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Bearcats have given up an ANY/A of 4.82 to opposing QBs, while the Bulls are yielding an ANY/A of 4.93.
McCloud has completed 83-of-150 passes for 899 yards, nine TDs and six INTs. McCloud’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at a horrendous 3.79 for the season and 5.54 across his past two games. In the other huddle, Ridder has put up 1,535 passing yards this year, and has connected on 119-of-198 attempts with 16 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions. Ridder’s got a 7.08 ANY/A for the year, although that number is 5.52 over the past two outings.
These two teams met last year with the final result being a 35-23 win for Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. South Florida Bulls NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: South Florida, ATS Winner: South Florida, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Cincinnati’s last game was set at 53.5. The under cashed in the team’s 48-3 victory over Connecticut.
- Cincinnati, as a team, has produced 6.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 7.4 over its last two.
- South Florida has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.3 over its last two.
- The South Florida offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Cincinnati has lost six.
- In its last three contests, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for South Florida’s previous outing going into it was 49.5. The under cashed in that 17-7 loss to Temple.
- Over its last three matches, South Florida is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Bearcats offense has recorded nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulls have accounted for five such plays.
- The Cincinnati defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while South Florida has given up zero such plays.
- The Cincinnati offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while South Florida has created 19 such runs.
- The Bearcats defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Bulls have given up 13 such runs.
- The Cincinnati D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times this season. South Florida has produced 23 sacks.
