To conclude the NFL regular season, the Minnesota Vikings (-7) are set to welcome the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium. This NFC North showdown starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX is scheduled to televise the action.
Betting Preview: Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago is a live dog and is currently getting 7 points in this Sunday NFC game. The Bears are also receiving +230 moneyline odds while the Vikings are -280. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 41.5 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early, it will likely create a worthwhile in-game betting opportunity.
The Bears have lost 4.1 units so far in 2019 and are 4-11 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 5-10.
The Vikings have gained 4.0 units this season. The team is 7-7 ATS and has an O/U record of 8-6.
The Bears have gone 7-8 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against NFC North opponents. The Vikings are 10-5 SU overall and 2-3 SU versus divisional foes.
The Bears are most-recently on the rebound after a 26-3 defeat to Kansas City last week where Mitchell Trubisky completed only 18-of-34 passes for 157 yards. David Montgomery (57 yards on 13 rush attempts) mounted the ground attack. Allen Robinson II (six receptions, 53 yards) and Tarik Cohen (three catches, 25 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Minnesota just lost 23-10 to Green Bay last week. The defense allowed the Packers to run for 184 yards on 32 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Aaron Jones was a force to be reckoned with, putting up 154 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 23 attempts for Green Bay. For Minnesota, Kirk Cousins completed 16-of-31 passes for 122 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Mike Boone (28 yards on 11 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Abdullah (six receptions, 31 yards) and Stefon Diggs (three catches, 57 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Chicago’s run the ball on 39.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Minnesota has an overall rush percentage of 50.3 percent. The Bears have rushed for 86.7 yards per game (including 76.6 per game versus North opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Vikes are averaging 130.6 rush yards per game (116.2 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Vikes ought to hold an edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up just 28 sacks while the D-line has logged 44 sacks. The Bears offensive line has allowed 41 sacks and their defense has logged only 32 sacks.
The Bears offensive scheme has tallied 224.4 yards per game through the air overall (255.4 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing TDs so far. The Vikes have put up 240.2 pass yards per game (233 in the NFC) and have 26 total pass scores.
Chicago has allowed opponents to run for an average of 97.2 yards and pass for 244.7 yards per game. The Minnesota D has allowed 259.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 104.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Vikes are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.35 to opposing QBs, while the Bears have allowed a 5.86 ANY/A.
Offensively, Trubisky is up to 2,597 passing yards this season, and has connected on 64 percent of his 426 attempts with 16 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He’s got a 5.18 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.11 over the last two games.
Allen Robinson II (951 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns this season), Anthony Miller (533 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Tarik Cohen (165 rush yards, 355 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played significant roles lately.
In the home locker room, Kirk Cousins has connected on 288-of-419 passes for 3,396 yards, 25 TDs and five INTs. Cousins’ ANY/A sits at 7.75 for the year and 3.92 over his past two games.
We’re thinking the Vikes will control the game’s clock by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to Stefon Diggs (1,054 receiving yards, six receiving TDs this season), Mike Boone (69 rush yards) and Ameer Abdullah (68 rush yards, 74 receiving yards, one TD) have really been focal points in the Vikings’ recent offensive strategies.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Vikings, ATS Winner: Vikings, O/U: Over
Betting Notes
- The Minnesota D has created 44 sacks on the year while Chicago has just 32.
- Minnesota has lost 11 fumbles this season while the Chicago offense has let six get away.
- The Bears offense has registered two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Vikings have put up nine such plays.
- The Chicago defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Minnesota has given up seven such plays.
- The Chicago offense has created five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Minnesota has created 13 such runs.
- The Bears defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Vikings have given up five such runs.
- The O/U for Minnesota’s previous game was 45. The under cashed in the 23-10 defeat to Green Bay.
- In its last three contests, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matchups, Chicago is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Chicago’s last game was set at 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 26-3 loss to Kansas City.
- As a team, Chicago has averaged 4.2 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 4.0 over its last two.
- Minnesota has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.7 over its past two.
