Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction 01/04/20

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The Dallas Mavericks (22-12) will be 12-point favorites at home in the American Airlines Center when they clash with the Charlotte Hornets (14-23). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southwest at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 4, 2020.

Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last outing. The Mavericks (8-point favorites) defeated the Brooklyn Nets 123-111, while the Hornets (2-point underdog) beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 109-106. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Dallas game went 11 points over the projected point total of 223, while the Charlotte game finished 3 points over the projected point total of 212.

Charlotte dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.241 (above their season average of 0.186) and a turnover percentage of 10.5 (better than their season average of 13.0). Cleveland was 0.136 and 13.8, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Dallas dominated nearly every stat category in their game. They had a fantastic effective field goal percentage of 0.607 (above their season average of 0.541) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.3 (above their season average of 24.0). Brooklyn recorded marks of 0.527 and 26.1, respectively, for those same stats. Dallas’ Luka Doncic played well, putting up 31 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists. Meanwhile, Terry Rozier was a key piece for Charlotte with 30 points and six rebounds.

The Mavericks dominated this series last year, taking both contests. In the most recent game, Dallas won 99-93. Dallas won the rebounding battle. The Mavericks had more offensive rebounds (15 vs. 8), defensive rebounds (42 vs. 39) and total rebounds (57 vs. 47). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.

Of the Hornets’ 37 games, 19 have finished over the total. Charlotte comes into the contest with records of 14-23 straight up (SU) and 18-18-1 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas tends to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as 21 of their 37 games have gone over the total. Moreover, Dallas is 22-12 SU and 20-14 ATS.

Dallas could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their productive offense faces off against one of the NBA’s worst defenses. The Mavericks rank first in offensive efficiency, while Charlotte ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.

Charlotte Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Hornets, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Hornets rank 14th in points off turnovers per game (17.3) while the Mavericks rank 26th (15.6).
  • Charlotte ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (11.8) while Dallas ranks 29th (16.1).
  • The Mavericks rank seventh in assists allowed per game (23.1) while the Hornets rank 28th (26.9).
  • Dallas ranks third in second chance points per game (14.6) while Charlotte ranks 20th (12.7).
  • Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while Charlotte ranks 13th (4.9).
  • The Mavericks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (41.4) while the Hornets rank 24th in three pointers allowed per game (34.7).
  • The Mavericks rank 14th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.5) while the Hornets rank 27th (51.1).
  • Charlotte ranks 24th in steals per game (6.8) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.6).
  • Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (48.0) while Charlotte ranks 26th (42.6).
  • When holding opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 5-0 and Charlotte is 3-0.
  • In games where they score above 100 points, the Hornets are 12-13 and the Mavericks are 22-10.
  • Charlotte is 10-9 ATS on the road, while Dallas is 7-10 ATS at home.
  • The Hornets have 12 overs and 7 unders in 19 road games.
  • In 17 home games, the Mavericks have 10 overs and 7 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • The Mavericks are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Hornets are 1-4.
  • In their last five games, Dallas has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Charlotte has 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 112.4 points per game (4.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.8 points per game (0.1 below their season average).
  • The Hornets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.0, up from 6.7 for the season.