It’ll be a MWC-MAC showdown as the San Diego State Aztecs (-4) are favorites as they prepare to take on the Central Michigan Chippewas in the New Mexico Bowl. ESPN will broadcast the action and the critical afternoon game is scheduled to start at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Central Michigan Chippewas vs. San Diego State Aztecs
In this Saturday game, San Diego State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Chippewas are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Aztecs are -175. If one side catches a lucky break early it will generate a reasonable betting scenario in-game. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 41.5 points.
Early action has shifted to both the Chippewas and the over. The opening line was initially -5 while the game’s O/U was set originally at only 40.
The surprising Chippewas are 9-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 4.3 units so far. The team has posted an O/U mark of 9-4.
The Aztecs have lost 5.6 units this season. The team is 7-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-11.
The Chippewas have gone 8-5 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Aztecs are 9-3 SU.
The Chippewas are looking to bounce back after a 26-21 loss to Miami (OH) on December 7. Quinten Dormady completed 26 passes for 232 yards, along with one score and a pick. Jonathan Ward (just 26 rushing yards on 10 attempts) provided the ground attack while JaCorey Sullivan (seven receptions, 64 yards) and Kalil Pimpleton (six catches, 52 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
San Diego State just picked up a 13-3 win over BYU. Carson Baker completed 19-of-24 passes for 172 yards and one touchdown. Juwan Washington (26 rushing yards on 10 attempts) led the running game as Jesse Matthews (four receptions, 78 yards) and Jordan Byrd (three catches, 10 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Central Michigan has run the ball on 53 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has a rush percentage of 57.3 percent. The Chippewas have rushed for 186.7 yards per game and have 35 scores on the ground this year. The Aztecs are putting up 133.7 rushing yards per game and have 10 total rush TDs.
The Chippewas offense has logged 258.9 yards/contest through the air overall and has 19 passing scores so far. The Aztecs have produced 195.6 pass yards per contest and have 12 total pass TDs.
Central Michigan has allowed opponents to run for an average of 115.5 yards and throw for 236.2 yards per game. The San Diego State D has given up 216.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 72.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.37 to opponents, while the Chippewas have given up a 6.35 ANY/A.
Offensively, Dormady has put up 1,898 passing yards this year. He’s completed 66 percent of his 249 attempts with 12 passing scores and six interceptions. Dormady has a 6.93 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.65 over the last two games.
We’re expecting the Chippewas to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Backfield mates Kobe Lewis (846 rush yards, nine rush TDs) and Jonathan Ward (994 rush yards, 14 rush TDs, 322 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have been big focal points in the offensive gameplans for Central Michigan.
For the home team, Ryan Agnew has managed to complete 216-of-340 passes for 2,175 yards, 11 TDs and five INTs. Agnew’s ANY/A sits at 5.64 for the year and 5.87 over his last two games.
The Aztecs also prefer to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Jesse Matthews (490 receiving yards), Chase Jasmin (278 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Kobe Smith (599 receiving yards and four TDs) have gotten a multitude of touches recently.
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. San Diego State Aztecs Free Pick
SU Winner: San Diego State, ATS Winner: San Diego State, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- Central Michigan has averaged 4.4 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 5.0 over its last two.
- San Diego State has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.0 over its last two.
- The San Diego State offense has lost two fumbles this season while Central Michigan has lost 15.
- The Chippewas offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Aztecs have put up three such plays.
- The Central Michigan defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while San Diego State has given up 11 such plays.
- The Central Michigan offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while San Diego State has created six such runs.
- The Chippewas defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aztecs have given up four such runs.
- The San Diego State defense has sacked opposing QBs 28 times this season. Central Michigan has produced 27 sacks.
