The Patriots (-7) are preparing to welcome the Buffalo Bills to New England. This key AFC East matchup will get underway at 4:30 p.m. ET and NFL Network is scheduled to broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
In what may be an AFC playoff preview, New England is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Bills are also receiving +220 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -260. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 38.5 points, and if one squad gets out in front early, it will probably create a decent in-game betting opportunity.
Each team has posted a positive return this season as the Bills have gained 6.7 units while the Patriots are up 2.4 units.
The Bills are 10-4 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 11-3 SU overall and 4-0 SU against divisional foes.
The Bills just put together a 17-10 victory over Pittsburgh last week where Josh Allen completed only 13-of-25 passes for 139 yards, along with one score and a pick. Devin Singletary (87 rushing yards on 21 attempts) and Frank Gore (15 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while John Brown (seven receptions, 99 yards) and Singletary (two catches, two yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
New England is coming off of a 34-13 win over Cincinnati in Week 15. The defensive unit allowed the Bengals to run for 164 yards on 32 rush attempts. Joe Mixon had a productive outing in the loss, recording 136 rushing yards on 25 attempts for Cincinnati. For New England, Tom Brady completed 15-of-29 passes for 128 yards and two touchdowns. Sony Michel (89 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and Rex Burkhead (53 yards on six carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game as James White (three receptions, 49 yards, one TD) and Matt LaCosse (three catches, 22 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Buffalo’s run the ball on 48.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 40.8 percent. The Bills have produced 134.9 rush yards/game (including 137 per game against East opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pats are averaging 101.8 rush yards per game (85 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
The Bills offensive scheme has logged 216.5 yards per contest through the air overall (248 per game against conference opposition) and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Pats have produced 261.5 pass yards per game (246 against AFC competition) and have 22 total pass scores.
Defensively, Buffalo has let opponents run for an average of 101.4 yards and pass for 210.8 yards per game. The New England D has allowed 190.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 98.1 yards per game on the ground. The Pats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.88 to opponents, while the Bills have allowed a 4.45 ANY/A.
Offensively, Allen has put up 2,730 passing yards this season. He’s completed 238-of-391 attempts with 17 scores through the air and nine interceptions. He has a 5.97 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.25 over the past two outings.
In the other huddle, Tom Brady has managed to complete 312-of-515 passes for 3,396 yards, 20 TDs and six INTs. Brady’s ANY/A stands at 6.25 for the season and 4.00 over his last two games.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots NFL Prediction
SU Winner: Patriots, ATS Winner: Bills, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The New England offense has lost four fumbles this season while Buffalo has let six get away.
- The Buffalo D has 42 sacks on the year while New England has 41.
- Buffalo, as a team, has averaged 3.8 yards per rush attempt over its last three contests and 3.8 over its last two.
- New England has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.0 over its last two.
- Over its last three contests, New England is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous game was set at 37. The under cashed in the team’s 17-10 triumph over Pittsburgh.
- Over its last three matches, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for New England’s previous game going into it was 42. The over cashed in the team’s 34-13 win over Cincinnati.
- Buffalo has won five of its last six games SU, with a December 8th defeat to Baltimore representing the only loss over that span.
