The Miami Heat (32-14) and their phenomenal offense host the Boston Celtics (30-15) and their exceptional defense. The game gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds
The Heat come in on a high note after blowing out the Orlando Magic in their last matchup, 113-92, as 2.5-point underdogs. The Celtics, meanwhile, were beat by the New Orleans Pelicans, 123-108, and were unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The Miami game finished 14 points under the projected point total of 219, while the Boston game went 3 points under the projected point total of 234.
The Heat, who came into the game averaging an effective field goal percentage of 0.548, had an extraordinary mark of 0.620, while the Magic had a free throw rate of 0.169 (below the 0.206 mark opponents have averaged against Miami this season). Boston, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (14.0 vs. 14.7). Bam Adebayo had a tremendous performance for Miami, racking up 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists on his way to his second triple-double of the season. Kemba Walker fueled Boston with 35 points and five rebounds.
In their first matchup this season, Walker led the Celtics to a 112-93 win. He recorded 28 points and seven assists. Boston covered as a 6-point favorite and the two teams combined to put up 205 points, which was just under the projected point total of 208.5. Boston was effective at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Celtics made 26 of their 32 free throws (81.3 percent), while the Heat were just 11-17 (64.7 percent).
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Celtics games, with 24 unders compared to 20 overs. Boston heads into the game with records of 30-15 straight up (SU) and 26-18-1 against the spread (ATS).
Heat games have a tendency to finish over the O/U total (62.2 percent). Moreover, Miami is 32-14 SU and 24-19-2 ATS.
The game should be a showdown of strength against strength as the high-octane offense of Miami takes on the elite defense of Boston. The Heat rank fifth in offensive efficiency, while the Celtics are fifth in defensive efficiency.
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Celtics rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.2) while the Heat rank eighth (46.0).
- Boston ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.8) while Miami ranks 26th (4.2).
- The Celtics average 34.0 three pointers per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The Heat rank 28th in three pointers allowed per game (37.4).
- Boston ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Miami ranks 16th (7.9).
- Miami ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Boston ranks eighth (44.3).
- The Celtics rank fifth in points off turnovers per game (18.2) while the Heat rank 24th (15.5).
- The Celtics rank 14th in second chance points per game (13.1) while the Heat rank 27th (11.6).
- Boston ranks 17th in assists per game (23.5) while Miami ranks 21st in assists allowed per game (24.7).
- Boston ranks sixth in fast break points per game (15.3) while Miami ranks 25th (10.6).
- Boston is 11-2 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 6-1.
- In games where they reach the century mark, the Heat are 31-9 and the Celtics are 29-9.
- Boston is 13-8-1 ATS on the road, while Miami is 14-7-1 ATS at home.
- The Celtics have 14 unders and 8 overs in 22 road games.
- The Heat have 15 overs and 7 unders in 22 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- The Celtics are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Boston has 3 unders and 2 overs, while Miami has 4 overs and 1 under.
- During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 118.8 points per game (6.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (3.6 above their season average).
- The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.2, up from 3.9 for the season.
