Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction 10/28/18

betdsiBasketball, NBA

The Dallas Mavericks (2-3) will be 4-point underdogs at home in American Airlines Center when they square off with the Utah Jazz (3-2). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 217 points and action starts at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 28, 2018.

Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last matchup. The Jazz (1-point favorites) defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 132-111, while the Mavericks (11-point underdogs) were defeated by the Toronto Raptors, 116-107. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Utah game went 26 points over the projected point total of 217, while the Dallas game went 1.5 points over the projected point total of 221.5.

Utah played a nearly perfect game. They had a ridiculous free throw rate of 0.341 (above their season average of 0.280) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.580 (above their season average of 0.515). New Orleans recorded marks of 0.232 and 0.468, respectively, for those same stats. Dallas, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of making free throws (19-24; 79.2 percent). DeAndre Jordan played a key role for Dallas with 18 points, 15 rebounds and five assists. Ricky Rubio had a solid performance for Utah, finishing with 28 points, 12 assists and six rebounds.

Dallas might have a tough time scoring as they square off against one of the NBA’s best defenses. Since the 2017-18 season, Utah ranks second in defensive efficiency while the Mavericks rank 23rd in offensive efficiency. ,

Vegas is exceedingly accurate when setting the total of Jazz games, with an even split between overs and unders. Utah heads into the contest with records of 3-2 straight up (SU) and 2-2 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Mavericks are involved, as three of their 4 games have ended over the projected point total. Although Dallas has difficulty winning games outright (2-3 SU), they have an excellent record ATS (3-2).

The Jazz dominated this series last year, winning all three games. In the last matchup, Utah won 119-112. Making free throws was one of Utah’s largest strengths. They were 15-16 (93.8 percent), while the Mavericks were 11-14 (78.6 percent).

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick

Free Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • The Jazz rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (26.8) while the Mavericks rank 15th (29.4).
  • Utah ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (10.1) while Dallas ranks 27th (14.6).
  • The Jazz rank eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while the Mavericks rank 27th (3.9).
  • Utah ranks 13th in points in the paint per game (44.8) while Dallas ranks last (39.3).
  • Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (19.8) while Dallas ranks 17th (23.6).
  • The Jazz rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while the Mavericks rank 26th (45.6).
  • The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.9) while the Jazz rank 17th (16.9).
  • Utah ranks 23rd in second chance points per game (11.5) while Dallas ranks 29th (10.6).
  • Utah ranks fourth in steals per game (8.5) while Dallas ranks 24th (7.1).
  • Utah is 38-8 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 16-13.
  • In games where they reach the century mark, the Mavericks are 20-31 and the Jazz are 46-15.
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