The Atlanta Braves are preparing to take on their divisional rival Miami Marlins in a Saturday showdown. The game gets underway 6:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the action.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Miami (receiving +200 odds) is the huge home-team underdog against Atlanta and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total currently sit at -105 for the under and -115 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -150 for the Braves -1.5 runs and +130 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Marlins are 58-56 against the spread (ATS), but just 43-72 straight up (SU). The team has lost 5.5 units for moneyline bettors and 8.3 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Braves are 69-49 SU and have gone 55-62 against the spread. In total, the club has accumulated 9.7 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 6.3 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.
Marlins games have had an over/under record of 51-54-9 in 2019. Atlanta has been a decent over bet with a total record of 60-51-6.
The right-handed Mike Soroka is getting the start for the visiting Braves. Soroka is 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 97 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with 12 strikeouts and a 0.60 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins are handing the ball to righty Sandy Alcantara (4-10, 4.50 ERA), who has 93 strikeouts and 63 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.47. Alcantara is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in one start against Atlanta this year.
As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 4.31 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.69 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 55 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.91 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.83.
The Miami offense is putting up 3.6 runs per outing, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .292/.339/.450 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas. Castro is hitting .257/.283/.378 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 36 runs scored, while Rojas has put up a line of .289/.344/.384 with four homers, 33 RBIs and 44 runs scored.
For the visitors, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.50 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.15 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.31, along with a WHIP of 1.37.
Braves hitters have slashed .264/.340/.462 on their way to 5.4 runs scored per game this year, including 5.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies have paced Atlanta’s hitters. Acuna Jr. is slashing .298/.377/.535 with 32 home runs, 79 RBIs, 96 runs and 26 stolen bases, while Albies is hitting .301/.354/.510 with 18 homers, 64 RBIs, 77 runs and 11 steals.
The Braves have gained 7.5 units and are 43-48 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 46 of those games, as opposed to 41 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 5.5 units and are 39-44 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 34 of those games, compared to 43 that went under the total.
Braves vs. Marlins Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The under has cashed in just one of Miami’s last seven games.
- The Braves have a total OPS of .803 this season and an OPS of .800 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .664 overall and .648 against righties.
- The Braves have won three of their last four games SU.
- Miami has posted 21.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.8 over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 20 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.
