The New York Mets are set to host their NL East rival Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. Pix11 will televise the matchup and the first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Odds
Atlanta (+100) is entering this one as the underdog against New York (-110) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at -210 for the Braves +1.5 runs and +175 for the Mets -1.5 runs.
The Mets are 67-62 straight up (SU) and 66-62 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t strayed too far from expectations, losing 3.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.7 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Braves are 79-52 SU and have gone 63-67 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 16.0 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 3.0 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven.
New York games have an over/under record of 65-51-12 in 2019. The Braves have also been a decent over bet with a total record of 64-58-8.
Southpaw Dallas Keuchel is the projected starter for the visiting Braves. Keuchel is 4-5 with a 4.14 ERA and 60 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against New York this year.
The Mets are planning to start lefty Steven Matz (8-7, 4.18 ERA), who has 116 punchouts and 37 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.34. Matz is 1-1 with 18 strikeouts and a 4.74 ERA across four starts against Atlanta this year.
As a unit, New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.10 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 59 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.41 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.58.
The New York offense is putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .221/.277/.348 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Mets’ offense has been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and outfielder Jeff McNeil. Rosario is slashing .289/.327/.444 with 12 home runs, 55 RBIs, 63 runs and 15 steals, and McNeil is batting .336 with 15 homers, 55 RBIs and 67 runs.
In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 4.34 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.26 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.30, along with a WHIP of 1.37.
The Braves offense has slashed .261/.338/.458 on its way to 5.4 runs scored per game this season, including 5.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (5-0 SU).
Atlanta’s hitters have been led by left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and first baseman Freddie Freeman, who have combined to belt 71 home runs. Acuna Jr. is slashing .294/.378/.534 with 36 home runs, 89 RBIs, 106 runs and 30 stolen bases, while Freeman is slashing .302/.392/.573 with 35 homers, 105 RBIs and 101 runs scored.
The Braves have gained 6.6 units and are 16-14 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 15 of those games, compared to 12 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 3.6 units and are 16-14 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 13 of those games, compared to 14 which went under the total.
Braves vs. Mets MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- Atlanta has logged 16 extra-base hits over its last five games. New York has 15 XBH over its last five.
- The Braves have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit eight over their last 10.
- The Braves have an OPS of .796 this season, including an OPS of .791 against left-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS sits at .764 overall and .799 against lefties.
- New York has posted 27.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20.2 over its last five.
